The US Stock Market Remains in Consolidation Mode
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX, $USO
- The Bull has paused to refresh
- Fundamentals are Strong
- Interest rates are low
Some pundits are saying that the world markets entered Y 2018 speculating that the most synchronized global economic expansion in a decade was going to get to Hot, but it has Not.
Instead we have seen an unexpected loss of economic momentum in Europe, that has frightened investors who played down political risks, and stayed firmly focused on brisk economic growth and rising corporate profits.
The recent rise in Crude Oil prices, add inflation to the economic mix, as higher Crude Oil prices means higher wages.
Shayne and I are broadly optimistic as the fundamentals are strong, the QE is coming out of the equation, interest reates are still below the Key 5% rate for the benchmark US 10yr T-Note.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts robust 3.9% growth for Y 2018 and Y 2018, though it warned last week of risks from trade tensions or the waning impact of US tax cuts.
Eurozone business morale declined in April, and German authorities have cut growth forecasts after business confidence hit its lowest level in more than a year.
US Q-1 GDP data due Friday is predicted by the latest Reuters polls to show a 2.2% expansion, down from a forecast in March of 2.6% growth.
Most analysts believe that while growth has slowed a bit, rather than roared into Y 2018, a powerful expansion continues.
Seasonal adjustments after a long and severe Northern hemisphere Winter, early Easter holidays and China’s New Year, may also be to blame.
We will see, as the market continues to consolidate the huge gains since President Trump was elected on 8 November 2016.
Wednesday, the major US stock market indexes finished at: DJIA +59.70 at 24083.83, NAS Comp -3.61 at 7003.74, S&P 500 +4.84 at 2639.40
Volume: Trade on the NYSE came in at 788-M/shares exchanged
- NAS Comp +1.5% YTD
- Russell 2000 +1.0% YTD
- S&P 500 -1.3% YTD
- DJIA -2.6% YTD
HeffX-LTN’s Market Indexes Technical Analysis