Home 2021 The US Economy is Growing Fast

The US Economy is Growing Fast




“The largest US manufacturers including General Motors, General Electric, 3M and Boeing face higher costs due to global supply bottlenecks that will persist into next yr but agreed the hit to profits will be mitigated by charging higher prices for their products’-– Paul Ebeling

Analyst’s Note: With consumers and businesses expected to keep spending, many analysts expect the economy to grow at a strong pace of around 6.7% for all of Y 2021, and looking for a blockbuster retail Christmas holiday season, despite the supply shortages.

Reviewing Wednesday’s economic data:

  • Total durable goods orders declined 0.4% M-M in September and orders, excluding transportation, rose 0.4%. On a Y-Y basis, total durable goods orders were up 23.4%. Excluding transportation, they were up 17.3%.
    • The Key takeaway from the report is embedded in the line for nondefense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, which is a proxy for business spending. That line showed a 0.8% increase on top of a 0.5% increase in August, underscoring that there was a pickup in business spending activity in September.
  • The Advance report for International Trade in Goods for August showed a deficit of $96.3-B, versus a revised $88.2-B from $87.6-B in August. The Advance report for Retail Inventories for September decreased 0.2%, while the Advance report for Wholesale Inventories for September increased 1.1%.
  • Weekly Crude Oil inventories increased by 4.27-M bbls after decreasing by 431-M bbls during the prior wk.

Looking Ahead: Investors will receive the advance estimate for Q-3 GDP, wkly Initial and Continuing Claims, and Pending Home Sales for September Thursday.

  • S&P 500 +21.2% YTD
  • NAS Comp +18.2% YTD
  • DJIA +16.0% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +14.1% YTD

Have a prosperous day, Keep the Faith!

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Paul A. Ebeling, a polymath, excels, in diverse fields of knowledge Including Pattern Recognition Analysis in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange, and he is the author of "The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a highly regarded, weekly financial market commentary. He is a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to over a million cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognize Ebeling as an expert.