The Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) growth story is still very much intact
To validate Tesla as a growth company, no one really needs to look much further than their historic financial statements. In the last 10 years, Tesla has had an average yearly revenue growth of 107%. Even last year, revenue almost doubled from approx. $11.75B to $21.64B, a staggering $10B increase.
But as we know, the past does not equal the future. This is why the most important metric for Tesla’s continued revenue growth is demand. According to Elon’s statements on the conference call, we can expect sustainable worldwide demand for the Model 3 to be around 700.000 to 800.000 a year. This could be at an average sales price of $42.000, according to an estimate on the call by Elon Musk.
In 2019 Tesla expects growth to continue. He was clear on the call, that demand would be less in a recession, but we should expect at least 50% growth in total deliveries in 2019 even if we were to encounter a recession this year. Model 3 deliveries for 2019 is expected to be between 350.000 and 500.000. This number reflects the company’s internal projection, and is in contrast to the more conservative 360.000-400.000 total vehicles, stated in the letter to investors.
The automotive growth story looks even better when including the Model Y coming in 2020. According to Elon and Tesla’s projections, demand for the Model Y should be at least 50% higher than Model 3, and could be twice as high. Or put in another way, sustainable worldwide demand for the Model Y should be somewhere between 1 million and 1.6 million cars a year.
Energy storage is positioned to become a major contributor to revenue as well. According to Elon, we can expect “stationary storage” to grow twice as fast as automotive on a long term revenue basis, which means at least a doubling year over year. Eventually energy storage an solar, should contribute just as much to top and bottom lines as automotive.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
The projected upper bound is: 338.95.
The projected lower bound is: 266.72.
The projected closing price is: 302.84.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.
An on-neck line occurred. This is a bearish pattern where prices should move lower when the white candlestick’s (i.e., the most recent) low is penetrated.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 42.8420. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 43.61. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 108 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -47. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
TESLA INC closed down -4.400 at 303.770. Volume was 38% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 36% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
303.380 306.770 301.000 303.770 5,200,832
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 311.36 326.80 316.18
Volatility: 33 71 74
Volume: 6,177,139 7,677,665 9,090,294
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
TESLA INC is currently 3.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of TSLA.O at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on TSLA.O and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods.
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