# The Round Table Scorecard: 87 Days of a Live Ontology

On 1 July KXCO put a Round Table ontology in public. Eighty-seven days later, this is the scorecard: what the record holds, how it corrects itself, and how its first table has marked to the tape.

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By Shayne Heffernan · 2026-09-27
Tags: $PLTR, $MSFT, $INTC, $META, $ARM, $NVDA, $ORCL, $AAPL, $AMZN, $GOOGL, $BABA, $BIDU, $TCEHY, $ASML, $TSM, $AMD, $AVGO, $CRWV, Round Table, ontology
Signed: ML-DSA-65, anchored on Armature L1.
Nothing in this article is investment advice.

On 1 July 2026 KXCO published a live ontology at [kxco.ai/ontology-live](https://kxco.ai/ontology-live/). It is built on Round Table, KXCO's proprietary ontology engine, and pointed at data anyone can read: filings, company releases and reported deals. It opened on six companies, Meta, Anthropic, Nvidia, Alphabet, OpenAI and SpaceX, with 31 entities, 41 claims and no findings. On 12 July it was rebuilt as a map of the whole AI sector. As of 26 September it holds 395 entities, 892 claims and 47 findings, rebuilt against the market's close on 25 September.

This is the scorecard from launch to now. It grades three things: what the record holds, whether it corrects itself in the open, and what happened to the names on its first table.

## The record, launch to now

A claim here is one relationship between two entities, typed and dated. "ASML is the sole EUV supplier to TSMC" is one claim. "Nvidia invests $30bn in OpenAI" is another. Opinions go in as dated statements, not as facts. 838 of the 892 claims carry a source URL, and readings the Round Table derived itself are marked as derived.

![Exhibit 1: claims, entities and findings in the KXCO ontology at every update from 1 July to 26 September 2026](https://livetradingnews-media.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com/media/2026/09/27/cmpgg3-b2ba04d9be3d8819.svg)

*Exhibit 1: the record at every update since launch, read from version control.*

- **Entities:** 31 at launch, 395 now.
- **Claims:** 41 at launch, 892 now, 838 of them carrying a source URL.
- **Sources:** 12 distinct source domains at launch, 225 now.
- **On the page:** the header counts what is current, 382 entities on 875 live claims. The difference is closed claims and entities with no live link, all still on the record.
- **Findings:** none at launch. The first 11 went on the record on 19 July. There are 47 today, each ranked by severity and tied to the entities it rests on.
- **Updates:** 53 committed revisions of the AI Sector graph from its 12 July rebuild to 11 September, every one of them kept, and the update of 26 September on top.

## Two dates on every new claim

Since 5 August every new claim has carried two separate dates: when it was true in the world, and when it was written into the record. 372 claims carry both so far. That makes backdating visible. A claim cannot be slipped in later and made to look as if it was known at the time, and claims written before 5 August are never given a recording date after the fact, because that would be the same offence.

The same rule closes the sourcing gap from one side. A claim with a recording date must carry a source, so the older claims without one can be sourced or retired but never added to.

When a fact changes, the old claim is not edited. It is closed with an end date and kept, and the new claim names the one it replaces. 17 claims in the record are closed and kept today. None has been deleted.

![Exhibit 3: Oracle's backlog and Nvidia's GPU commitment to AWS, each claim drawn as its own node with the dates it was true and when it was recorded](https://livetradingnews-media.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com/media/2026/09/27/cmpgg3-af3b31207a02cf90.svg)

*Exhibit 3: two facts that moved while the record was live. The old claims stay, closed and dated.*

Oracle's contracted backlog is the cleanest example. The record carried $455bn ([DCD](https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/oracle-has-455bn-in-remaining-performance-obligations-at-end-of-q1-2026/)), then $553bn ([Oracle](https://investor.oracle.com/investor-news/news-details/2026/Oracle-Announces-Fiscal-Year-2026-Third-Quarter-Financial-Results/default.aspx)), then $664bn from the 10 September print ([SEC filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001341439/000119312526387905/orcl-ex99_1.htm)), and all three claims are still there with the dates each was true. A reader can ask the record what it knew on any day since launch and get the answer it would have given then.

## The structure a list does not show

On 6 August the Round Table ranked one finding critical: ASML is where four separate risks meet. Every underlying fact had been in public filings for years. What was missing was a view in which the shape could be seen at all. The engine grew the graph outward, laid the dependencies out, and the convergence became obvious to the people reading it.

![Exhibit 2: the four risk paths that meet at ASML, drawn from the sourced claims in the AI Sector ontology](https://livetradingnews-media.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com/media/2026/09/27/cmpgg3-420eaf4fc66c0141.svg)

*Exhibit 2: demand, geography, materials and policy, each reaching ASML through the claims in the record.*

- **Demand.** TSMC fabricates Nvidia's silicon, and only ASML's machines can print it.
- **Geography.** TSMC concentrates leading-edge capacity in the Taiwan Strait.
- **Materials.** The Strait of Hormuz carries about 30% of the world's helium, per [Gowling WLG](https://gowlingwlg.com/en/insights-resources/articles/2026/helium-hormuz-and-the-chip-supply-chain), and helium is a non-substitutable input for every fab ASML supplies.
- **Policy.** About 20% of ASML's 2026 revenue is China, according to [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/17/us-china-ai-feud-asml-tightrope-sales-geopolitics.html), which the proposed MATCH Act would restrict further.

Three of the four reach ASML indirectly. A table of companies ranks ASML by size. A graph shows it as the point the rest of the sector passes through.

## Findings that met the record

A finding is a reading of the graph, ranked by severity. 23 of the 47 have been revised at least once as new facts landed. Some held, some strengthened, and some were rewritten against themselves.

- **19 July, critical: Nvidia is a single point of failure.** Revised five times as the evidence deepened, most recently on 26 September, and never withdrawn. The 26 August print of $96.2bn, up 106% in a year per [Nvidia](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-second-quarter-fiscal-2027), measured the same dependency from the revenue side.
- **24 July: a second GPU supplier reaches the frontier.** Recorded on AMD's up-to-2GW MI450 agreement with Anthropic, per [AMD](https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1292/amd-and-anthropic-announce-strategic-partnership-to-deploy-up-to-2-gigawatts-of-amd-instinct-mi450-series-gpus). AMD closed at $630.63 on 25 September 2026, a market value of $1.03T and above its $619 consensus target, per [stockanalysis.com](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amd/).
- **5 August, high: circular capital moves from equity into credit.** Entered as talks over a backstop of up to $250bn, per [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/27/nvidia-and-openai-in-talks-for-up-to-250-billion-dollar-ai-backstop.html), and labelled talks. On 17 August the first piece was signed: Nvidia guaranteed up to $105bn of OpenAI's lease and power obligations at the Ohio campus, per [Axios](https://www.axios.com/2026/08/17/openai-nvidia-ohio-data-center-sb-energy). The record moved from talks to instrument without rewriting what it had said before.
- **5 August, high: the market repriced the thesis in a single week.** More than $1tn came off chip market values in the week to 29 July, per [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/chip-selloff-sk-hynix-samsung-softbank.html), and the chokepoint tier took the worst of it. The finding then recorded the reversal. SMH returned +9.0% from 17 July to 25 September per stockanalysis.com closes.
- **5 August: the dual-IPO quarter has split.** It first recorded both frontier labs heading for a Q4 2026 listing. When OpenAI slipped to 2027, the finding was rewritten against itself and retitled, per [Fortune](https://fortune.com/2026/08/13/anthropic-ipo-2-trillion-october-largest-ever-spacex/).
- **6 August, critical: ASML is where four risks meet.** Exhibit 2. It has held unchanged since the day it was written.
- **11 September: short interest fell into the selloff.** It named its own falsifier, a sharp build at the 15 September settlement. The settlement is in, per [FINRA](https://www.finra.org/finra-data/browse-catalog/equity-short-interest/data): four of the five names fell again, and Oracle built 14.0%, the only rise. For Oracle the falsifier fired, and the finding now says so in its title.

## The first outlook table, marked to the tape

On 19 July the ontology added an Analyst Outlook view: 13 listed names from the graph with the Street's consensus rating and target beside them. That table is now 10 weeks old. Here is every name on it, measured from its 17 July close to the 25 September close.

![Exhibit 4: return from 17 July to 25 September 2026 for the 13 names on the first Analyst Outlook table, against the Nasdaq-100 and SMH](https://livetradingnews-media.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com/media/2026/09/27/cmpgg3-da28b89778f1b81f.svg)

*Exhibit 4: every name on the first table, right and wrong alike.*

- **9 of 13 are higher.** 7 of 13 are ahead of the Nasdaq-100, which returned +7.1% over the same window per stockanalysis.com closes. Semiconductors (SMH) returned +9.0%.
- **The 10 US names averaged +15.8%**, per stockanalysis.com closes. Nine rose. Alphabet was the exception at -0.8%.
- **The one Hold on the table, Intel, rose +29.4%** per stockanalysis.com closes. The Street has since moved its consensus to Buy.
- **All three China names fell:** Alibaba -4.5%, Tencent -5.4% (Hong Kong line), Baidu -18.6%, per stockanalysis.com closes. The record had carried China's political and oversight risk as a finding since 19 July.
- **The best was Palantir at +43.3%**, and it has traded through the $184 consensus target the table carried on 19 July 2026, per [MarketBeat](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/PLTR/forecast/).

KXCO does not treat the table as a trade list. The ratings are the Street's. The Round Table puts the structure beside them, people argue with it, and they decide.

## The fortnight just added

The 26 September update added 23 claims, 2 entities and 1 new finding, and revised 14 existing findings. Every source was fetched and the central filings were read for the figures themselves.

- **Nscale's S-1, filed 18 September.** It is the first filing to state an Anthropic compute contract: up to $44.6bn of Vera Rubin capacity, per the [SEC filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2110365/000119312526395475/ck0002110365-20260918.htm). The same document records Nvidia in four roles with one company: supplier, customer under a $1.2bn services agreement, guarantor of up to $860.3m of a Texas lease, and $1.0bn investor. That is the new finding.
- **Anthropic's timetable slipped rather than broke.** Reuters reported on 4 September that the public prospectus had moved to late September and marketing to mid-October at the earliest, per [Reuters](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/exclusiveanthropic-ipo-launch-shifts-toward-midoctober-sources-say-4890091). Up to $100bn is sought at about $2tn, with Nvidia in talks to anchor with up to $10bn, per [Reuters](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/exclusivenvidia-in-talks-to-invest-in-anthropics-mega-ipo-sources-say-4898552). OpenAI will not list in 2026, Sam Altman told [Fortune](https://fortune.com/2026/09/12/sam-altman-openai-ipo-delay-ill-advised-moment-safety-concerns/).
- **Stargate's execution gap widened, and the record carries both sides.** Oracle sent a force majeure notice on the 2.45GW Project Jupiter campus on 24 September, per [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2026/09/24/oracle-sends-force-majeure-notice-on-its-new-mexico-stargate-data-center/). GPT-6 Astra was pretrained on more than 100,000 GPUs at the Texas site, per [Fortune](https://fortune.com/2026/09/03/openai-debuts-gpt-6-astra-computer-use-greg-brockman-says-start-of-agi/).
- **A second chip vendor now finances its customers.** Broadcom said its financing structures are mainly for Anthropic and OpenAI, and expects Anthropic to deploy 5GW of TPU in 2027, per its [earnings call](https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-broadcom-tops-q3-2026-estimates-as-ai-sales-surge-93CH-4886849).
- **A finding corrected itself.** Nvidia's 10-Q shows a maximum guarantee exposure of $108.5bn, $3.5bn of it older guarantees for AI cloud partners, per the [10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001045810/000104581026000075/nvda-20260726.htm). The credit finding had said every earlier loop was equity. It now says almost every, and names the exception.
- **The Hugging Face deal was signed.** Nvidia's 8-K sets it at about $11.9bn plus up to $1.0bn of retention equity, the $12.9bn first reported, per the [SEC filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000078/nvda-20260902.htm). The reported claim was closed on 2 September and the signed claim names it.
- **Scarcity reached prices.** Chinese AI chip prices rose 20-50% in the two months to 10 September 2026 on a memory shortage, per [Reuters](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/exclusivechinas-ai-chipmakers-raise-prices-as-highbandwidth-memory-shortage-bites-4894950), and CoreWeave's filed presentation shows about a 70% price increase across its GPU offerings in July, per the [SEC filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1769628/000176962826000429/crwv2026convertpresentat.htm).

## What this is, and what Round Table is

The ontology at kxco.ai/ontology-live is a public demonstration. It is the same engine pointed at a deliberately open dataset, which is the point: if the method is this useful on data everyone already has, it is more useful on data only you have.

Round Table itself runs against private books of record: a fund's positions, a family office's holdings, an institution's counterparties. It is deployed rather than handed over as software, which is why there is no self-service tier. It is available to funds, family offices and institutions. To discuss a deployment, [contact KXCO](https://kxco.ai/contact).

Stocks mentioned: $PLTR (NASDAQ), $MSFT (NASDAQ), $INTC (NASDAQ), $META (NASDAQ), $ARM (NASDAQ), $NVDA (NASDAQ), $ORCL (NYSE), $AAPL (NASDAQ), $AMZN (NASDAQ), $GOOGL (NASDAQ), $BABA (NYSE), $BIDU (NASDAQ), $TCEHY (OTC), $ASML (NASDAQ), $TSM (NYSE), $AMD (NASDAQ), $AVGO (NASDAQ) and $CRWV (NASDAQ).

Shayne Heffernan, Ph.D., is the founder of Live Trading News, the KnightsBridge Group, Knightsbridge Law and the KXCO.ai ecosystem spanning post-quantum cryptography, identity, attestation and enterprise ontology.

*Disclosure: Live Trading News and KXCO are part of the same group. The Analyst Outlook table is a research record of consensus ratings and prices at stated dates. It is not a portfolio, a recommendation or a record of trades.*

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