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Wednesday, December 1, 2021

The rally in Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock has faded, and rising risks should add to the pressure

The rally in Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock has faded, and rising risks should add to the pressure

The case against Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is reasonably simple. Yes, Apple stock looks reasonably cheap. But given that earnings are potentially at a peak, AAPL shares shouldbe cheap. Not only that, it can still get even cheaper.

It’s a case I’ve made for some time now. The iPhone over the past four quarters has generated 58% of total revenue. Yet sales may well have peaked. Per the 10-Q, iPhone revenue already has fallen nearly 16% year-over-year in the first half of fiscal 2019.

That’s unlikely to change. The U.S. market is saturated, and replacement cycles are extending. Apple is not going to be able to institute the same pricing increases that drove revenue growth in recent years. And as is the case with all consumer hardware, whether it’s TVs or PCs, the gap between iPhones and lower-cost Android alternatives inevitably will narrow over time.

The bullish response is that even if iPhone sales drop, its Services business — including the profitable App Store — and growth in China can keep earnings stable at worst. With the AAPL stock price only about 15 times FY19 earnings estimates plus its cash hoard, that should be good enough.

However, that bull case has taken a clear hit recently. And while Apple stock has moved in response, falling almost 10% since a pop after Q2 earnings, it hasn’t moved far enough. Thus, AAPL stock can get a lot cheaper from here.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 200.90.

The projected lower bound is: 181.56.

The projected closing price is: 191.23.


A big white candle occurred. This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “low,” it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or retracement level), the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 25.4221. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 40.29. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -117.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

APPLE INC closed up 2.260 at 190.920. Volume was 11% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 31% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
186.270 191.750 186.020 190.920 26,544,718

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 199.83 194.85 192.46
Volatility: 41 32 40
Volume: 34,705,736 29,918,482 34,796,520

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


APPLE INC is currently 0.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AAPL.O at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AAPL.O and have had this outlook for the last 3 periods.

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