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The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is Holding Well Above its 47-yr Average

#NFIB #SmallBusiness #Index

As President Trump fights election fraud, America’s small business men and women remain optimistic”— Paul Ebeling

Tuesday’s US economic data review, as follows:

  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index came in at 101.4 well above it’s 47 yr average of 98.
  • Productivity in Q-3 increased at a annual rate of 4.6%
  • Unit labor costs decreased at an annual rate of 6.6%
    • The Key takeaway from the report is that it reflects the strong rebound in Q-3, as the economy rebounded from the deep virus-induced instant recession in February-March.
  • The US stock market was unresponsive to the report.

Small business owners still face uncertainties, including the COVID-19 chaos and the election spillover, which shapes how they view future business conditions.

The recovery may remain uneven as long as the Blue state and local restriction that target business overall and and really hammers small businesses and their employees notably the backbone of America’s economy.

As reported in NFIB’s November jobs report, finding qualified employees is still a problem for small business owners with 89% of those hiring or trying to hire reporting few or no “qualified” applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. And 27% of small business owners reported few qualified applicants for their open positions and 20% reported none at all.

Some 6% of small business owners cited labor costs as their Top business problem, and 24% said that labor quality was their Top business problem far exceeding the percentages that selected taxes, regulations, and weak sales as their Top problems.

Capital outlays: 53% reported spending to acquired new buildings or land for expansion, unchanged from September, and 13% spent money for new fixtures and furniture in the last 6 months.

Employment: The share of total employment accounted for by firms with 500 or more workers has risen Vs Y 2019, while the share accounted for by small employers has declined because Covid-19 policies have targeted business activity that disproportionately affect small firms.

Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) has not had to close, but restaurants, gyms, small retailers, and the lot had to close for some lockdown frames or operate under heavy restrictions. Which has resurfaced in the Blue States of New York, Illinois and California this week and run through the Christmas holiday season.

This has been and will continue to be the major source of increased unemployment. Solving this problem requires getting America’s small business sector back in operation.

The arrival of effective vaccines this month will make this easier to accomplish as would the use of less draconian government policies than those anti-business policies currently used to manage America’s small business sector.

I expect solid momentum going into the 4th quarter, and another good quarter could get the GDP back to its 2019 closing levels. However, after that is the question of how long the recovery will be able to sustain itself, given the fact that the President-elect’s key Appointees are not from the business environment and thus. lack certain basic business experience necessary for a recovering economy, especially when it comes to the value of the dollar and their effect on exports/ US employment There is also the return to the appeasement policy on the World Stage too,”” says noted economist-businessman Bruce WD Barren in an interview Tuesday evening.

Mr. Barren bases his thesis on the following Key points: 1) Earnings trends over the past 3 months improved 9 pts to a net negative 3% reporting higher earnings. 2) Earnings trends have improved to pre-crisis levels, up 32 pts since June. 3) Inventory investment plans for the next 3 to 6 months increased 1 pt to a net 12%, a record high, and 4) Real sales expectations in the next 3 months increased 3 pts to a net 11% expecting gains. Mr. Barren is Bullish overall.

To read the full report click here.

Note: The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) is the leading small business association representing small and independent businesses. A nonprofit, nonpartisan organization founded in Y 1943, NFIB represents the consensus views of its members in Washington, DC and all 50 states.

Have a healthy day, Keep the Faith!

Paul Ebeling
Paul A. Ebeling, a polymath, excels, in diverse fields of knowledge Including Pattern Recognition Analysis in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange, and he is the author of "The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a highly regarded, weekly financial market commentary. He is a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to over a million cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognize Ebeling as an expert.   

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