A New Frontier in Global Growth
By Shayne Heffernan, Knightsbridge
March 1, 2025
The skies are no longer just for birds and jumbo jets. A revolution is unfolding below 1,000 meters—sometimes stretching to 3,000 meters in certain regions—a domain we’re calling the low-altitude economy. As an investor and analyst at Knightsbridge, I’ve watched emerging markets redefine wealth creation, but this is something different: a fusion of technology, innovation, and untapped potential that’s poised to reshape how we live, work, and prosper. Let’s break it down—what it is, how big it’s getting, and who’s leading the charge.
What Is the Low-Altitude Economy?
Picture this: drones zipping through cities delivering packages, electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft ferrying passengers across urban sprawls, and low-flying machines mapping farmland or inspecting infrastructure. The low-altitude economy encompasses all economic activity within this airspace—typically below commercial aviation altitudes—enabled by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), air taxis, and other cutting-edge aerial tech. It’s not just about hardware; it’s a sprawling ecosystem of logistics, tourism, agriculture, security, and even entertainment, all powered by advances in AI, battery tech, and airspace management.
This isn’t science fiction—it’s here. From drone deliveries in rural Africa to air taxis buzzing above Guangzhou, the low-altitude economy is the next frontier, blending practicality with ambition. At Knightsbridge, we see it as a rare opportunity: a market driven by necessity and innovation, unshackled from the constraints of traditional infrastructure.
How Big Is It?
The numbers are staggering—and they’re only climbing. China, the pacesetter in this space, offers a glimpse of the potential. In 2023, its low-altitude economy was valued at 505.5 billion yuan (roughly $70 billion USD), with projections from the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) pegging it at 2 trillion yuan (about $280 billion USD) by 2030. That’s a compound annual growth rate that would make any investor sit up and take notice. Globally, estimates are trickier, but Morgan Stanley has forecast the urban air mobility market alone—eVTOLs and related services—could hit $1 trillion by 2040. Add in drones for logistics, agriculture, and surveillance, and you’re looking at a multi-trillion-dollar ecosystem within decades.
As of March 2025, we’re already seeing exponential growth. China’s National Development and Reform Commission launched a Low-altitude Economy Development Division late last year, signaling serious intent. In the U.S., the FAA’s push to integrate drones and eVTOLs into national airspace is unlocking new capital. The Sahel and Southeast Asia are jumping in too, with drone-based solutions tackling everything from medical supply drops to disaster response. At Knightsbridge, we’re tracking this closely—because where there’s growth, there’s opportunity.
Who’s Involved? The Companies Driving the Boom
The low-altitude economy isn’t a one-player game; it’s a constellation of innovators, from scrappy startups to global giants. Here’s who’s making waves:
- EHang Holdings (China)
A trailblazer in eVTOL, EHang is turning low-altitude tourism and urban transport into reality. Their EH216 autonomous air taxi has logged thousands of flights, and a recent deal with Zhejiang Sunriver Culture and Tourism is pushing “low-altitude sightseeing” into the mainstream. EHang’s market cap is скромнее than some, but their first-mover advantage is undeniable. - DJI (China)
The undisputed king of drones, DJI dominates consumer and commercial UAV markets. From agriculture to cinematography, their tech underpins much of the low-altitude economy’s foundation. Rumors of a pivot toward logistics and larger-scale UAVs have investors buzzing. - Joby Aviation (USA)
Joby’s electric air taxis are gearing up to redefine urban mobility. With a $1 billion-plus valuation and partnerships like Uber (back in the day) and now Delta Airlines, they’re a U.S. heavyweight betting big on low-altitude transit. Their 2024 test flights signal commercial ops are imminent. - AutoFlight (China/Global)
Known for its massive cargo drones—like the Prosperity I, tested in 2024—AutoFlight is carving a niche in logistics. Their push into Europe and beyond shows the low-altitude economy’s borderless ambition. - Lilium (Germany)
Lilium’s sleek eVTOL jets aim to connect cities and suburbs, with a range that outstrips many rivals. Backed by deep-pocketed investors, they’re a European contender to watch. - Amazon (USA)
Through its Prime Air drone delivery program, Amazon is quietly building a low-altitude logistics empire. They’re not just delivering packages—they’re setting the stage for a scalable aerial network. - Zipline (USA)
Focused on medical deliveries, Zipline’s drones are a lifeline in places like Rwanda and now the U.S. Their precision and reliability make them a standout in humanitarian and commercial applications.
Beyond these headliners, hundreds of smaller players—think XPeng AeroHT (China), Archer Aviation (USA), and Volocopter (Germany)—are fueling the ecosystem. Local governments and tech firms like Huawei (airspace management) and Tesla (battery tech speculation) are also in the mix, providing the infrastructure to make it all work.
Why It Matters—and What’s Next
At Knightsbridge, we’re not just observing; we’re positioning. The low-altitude economy is more than a market—it’s a paradigm shift. It’s about efficiency: cutting delivery times from days to hours. It’s about access: reaching remote areas traditional transport can’t. And it’s about vision: reimagining how humanity interacts with the sky.
Challenges remain—regulation, safety, public acceptance—but the momentum is unstoppable. By 2030, expect trillion-dollar valuations and a reshuffled global economy. For investors, the play is clear: get in early, back the winners, and ride the ascent. The low-altitude economy isn’t just taking off—it’s soaring.
Shayne Heffernan is a financial strategist at Knightsbridge, specializing in emerging markets and innovative technologies.
