Home 2020 The History of the S&P 500 Post a Presidential Election

The History of the S&P 500 Post a Presidential Election


#SP500 #election #PredisentTrump #JoeBiden #Republican #Democrat


There can be no doubt the S&P 500 has done very well since the 2016 election, President Trump’s policies have brought investors returns not seen since FDR, Harry Truman and Dwight Eisenhower.“–Paul Ebeling

Donald Trump does not sound like a Washington DC politician because he is not a politician. He does not play by the rules of the Washington Establishment, that is because he was elected to fight for us, harder than anyone has before.

President Trump’s policies work: US GDP will show biggest growth since WWII just prior to the 3 November election.

The Stock Market Post Election

The data on post-election market performance tells us that a Trump win is better for stocks than a Biden win.  

Since Y 1950, the S&P 500 has added an average of 9.6% in the yr after a sitting President wins re-election.

My research now says Donald Trump has 87% chance of winning this election.

This time given the critical issues now swirling around Democratic candidate Joe Biden the odds may be higher, but I do not consider that aspect in my tretis.

The research goes back to George Washington, I found 16X in US history when an incumbent President ran for reelection and the stock market was up more than 20% in the preceding 3 yrs. In 14 of those 16, the incumbent won reelection, giving a success rate of 87%. If the trend holds, Donald Trump will be #15.

The 2X it did not work out were George H.W. Bush, who lost to Bill Clinton in Y 1992 even though the stock market was up 38% in the preceding 3 yrs, but if you recall 41 actually stopped running about 1 month prior and let Bill Clinton (42) win by agreement that he signaled by looking at his watch during a debate, and John Adams, who did not win his reelection bid in Y 1800, despite the fact that the value of capital in US chartered banks had risen by 30% in the prior 5 yrs, at that time federal chartered banks were the only stock available to buy.

Make and Keep America Great!

Have a healthy weekend, Keep the Faith!

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Paul A. Ebeling, a polymath, excels, in diverse fields of knowledge Including Pattern Recognition Analysis in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange, and he is the author of "The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a highly regarded, weekly financial market commentary. He is a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to over a million cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognize Ebeling as an expert.