The headwinds facing Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock will come back into focus after AAPL reports its Q2 results

The headwinds facing Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock will come back into focus after AAPL reports its Q2 results

The headwinds facing Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock will come back into focus after AAPL reports its Q2 results

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock has rallied over the past month on irrational exuberance about the company’s upcoming streaming offering. The exuberance is irrational because, as I explained in a previous column, there are many reasons why Apple’s streaming offering is very unlikely to ever move the needle for Apple stock.

But even if I’m wrong, and the streaming product turns out be the savior of Apple stock, in all likelihood, it won’t be a major catalyst for AAPL stock right after AAPL reports its second-quarter results on Apr 30. That’s because the streaming product is not supposed to actually launch until this fall,

As a result, in the immediate aftermath of the company’s results, investors will probably focus on the likely year-over-year decline of its overall revenue and the continued anemic growth of demand for new iPhones.

Meanwhile, even some of the most outspoken bulls on Apple stock have indicated that AAPL stock has probably peaked for the time being. Furthermore, Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A,BRK.B) company owned nearly 250 million shares of Apple stock as of February, recently sounded very bearish on the outlook for the company’s streaming product.

So the main, positive catalyst that’s been boosting Apple stock shouldn’t be a factor in the wake of its Q2 results.With that catalyst on the back burner, most investors will probably focus on the company’s multiple problems and negative indicators. Here’s a list of four of those negative catalysts.

Apple’s Overall Revenue Will Probably Decline Year-Over-Year

AAPL has predicted that its Q2 revenue would be $55 billion to $59 billion. During the same period a year earlier, its top line came in at $61.1 billion. Although Apple’s guidance is known for being conservative, analysts’ consensus estimate for the company’s Q2 top line is $57.4 billion. Since analysts are very experienced with Apple’s guidance habits, the company’s top line probably dropped YoY in Q2. Such a decline would likely further undermine investors’ confidence in AAPL, putting pressure on AAPL stock.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 190.43.

The projected upper bound is: 214.00.

The projected lower bound is: 202.44.

The projected closing price is: 208.22.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 8 white candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 95.9684. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 80.45. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 20 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 182.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

APPLE INC closed up 2.950 at 207.480. Volume was 29% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 4% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
204.430 207.750 203.900 207.480 23,322,992

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 201.54 185.47 191.61
Volatility: 15 20 38
Volume: 24,522,310 26,442,016 33,545,490

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

APPLE INC is currently 8.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into AAPL.O (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AAPL.O and have had this outlook for the last 60 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that AAPL.O is currently in an overbought condition.

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