The Fed and the trade negotiations could impact the Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X)

The Fed and the trade negotiations could impact the Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X)

The Fed and the trade negotiations could impact the Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X)

The Dollar/Yen is trading lower on Wednesday in a limited trading range ahead of the start of the crucial trade talks between the U.S. and China, and the latest monetary policy decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Both events could trigger a volatile reaction in the Forex pair if they have a pronounced impact on risk appetite since this has been the theme driving the price action lately.

In other news, Japan’s retail sales rose more than forecast in December, which may ease some concern about the outlook for private consumption at a time of growing pressure on the economy.

Fed Decisions

The Fed is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged. Although the expected moves by the central bank are going to be perceived as dovish, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to tone down his comments to avoid fueling a volatile response by equity traders.

Investors are looking for the Fed to direct remarks toward the balance sheet, patience and data dependence.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 110.36.

The projected lower bound is: 107.49.

The projected closing price is: 108.93.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 23.6109. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 41.65. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 18 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 1. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.370 at 109.010. Volume was 5% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 25% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
109.380 109.730 108.800 109.010 104,816

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 109.45 110.93 111.25
Volatility: 4 8 7
Volume: 99,819 105,023 104,762

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX JPY= is currently 2.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.

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