The Dow (.DJI) , Like the Economy, Is in a Really Good Place

The Dow (.DJI) , Like the Economy, Is in a Really Good Place

The Dow (.DJI) , Like the Economy, Is in a Really Good Place

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 200 points, while the Nasdaq closed at an all-time high. In today’s After the Bell, we…

•…explain why the market climbed today;
•…consider the possible impact if no more tariffs get imposed;
•…and review the S&P 500’s Hot Stock and the Biggest Loser, which is one story today.

You Take the Good, You Take the Bad

Show of hands—who here thought that the market would be soaring one day after President Donald Trump announced plans to place tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese goods?

That’s exactly what happened on Thursday, as the S&P 500 gained 0.9% to 2798.29—a five-month high—while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 224.44 points, or 0.9%, to 24,924.89. The Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.4% to 7823.92, a new all-time high.

The consumer-price index climbed 2.9% in June from a year ago, its highest level since 2012, though other measures—namely its month-over-month increase—disappointed slightly. Together they confirm Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell‘s observation that the U.S. economy is in a “really good place,” although he did express mild concern about the possible impact of tariffs.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 25,465.40.

The projected lower bound is: 24,417.41.

The projected closing price is: 24,941.41.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 86.9231. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 57.48. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 108 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 133.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

DJ INDU AVERAGE closed up 224.441 at 24,924.891. Volume was 35% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 5% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
24,802.90024,939.97124,802.90024,924.891 233,154,672

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 24,510.43 24,674.12 24,413.93
Volatility: 12 14 18
Volume: 244,241,776 322,348,032 371,986,816

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

DJ INDU AVERAGE is currently 2.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of .DJI at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on .DJI and have had this outlook for the last 13 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.

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