Home 2020 The Coronavirus ‘curve’ Data is Off and Dangerous

The Coronavirus ‘curve’ Data is Off and Dangerous


The current coronavirus “curve” is not and cannot be accurate since it does not include suspected cases of the illness before late February.

It is unclear why scientists have not yet produced any models that attempt to calculate the virus’ presence here until testing was available.

A big increase in symptoms very similar to coronavirus occurred a few weeks after the 1st case was recorded, a timeline in accordance with the estimated trajectory of the illness’ spread. And roughly 70% of those expressing flu-like symptoms did not have the flu.

The Big Q: What was it?

The Big A: It is necessary to consider that COVID-19 has been in the US since the 1st of the year, that people suffering similar symptoms to the flu actually had COVID-19, and that the height of the outbreak occurred last month.

The number of people now testing positive for the virus does not mean that the outbreak is accelerating because the data is incomplete.

That is not the only concern about the truthfulness of data related to the transmission, spread, and fatality rate of the disease.

Experts are now cautioning that the available data is not accurate and should not be used to justify severe government measures now enacted at the federal, state, and local levels at a huge cost.

The data collected so far on how many people are infected and how the epidemic is evolving are utterly unreliable,” Dr. John Ioannidis, a professor of medicine and epidemiology at Stanford University, wrote in mid-March. “Given the limited testing to date, some deaths and probably the vast majority of infections due to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, are being missed. We do not know if we are failing to capture infections by a factor of 3 or 300.”

The good news is that the coronavirus does not appear to be as deadly as the seasonal flu in terms of sheer numbers. Based on CDC estimates and it is important to note that even the detection of influenza-caused hospitalizations and deaths is not an exact science, about 60-M Americans have contracted the flu since late September and up to 55,000 have died from it.

The number of detected coronavirus cases continues to rise due to widespread testing.

Further, hospitals are not yet overrun with coronavirus patients and, according to the CDC, hospitalizations this year due to the flu “is lower than end-of-season total hospitalization estimates for any season since CDC began making these estimates.” That is good news if the number of coronavirus sufferers requiring hospitalization actually materializes.

This is a dangerous time and not only because of the threat of a treatable disease.

Americans seem to willingly surrendering to government their freedom, their livelihood, their long-term economic security, and their mental well-being over unjustified panic about a virus that might have already spread and now is abating.

If this is the way things are going to be, where incomplete data and media-fueled panic rule the day, that is an even more frightening prospect than what is happening now with the virus.

Have a healthy weekend, stay at home!

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Paul A. Ebeling, a polymath, excels, in diverse fields of knowledge Including Pattern Recognition Analysis in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange, and he is the author of "The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a highly regarded, weekly financial market commentary. He is a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to over a million cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognize Ebeling as an expert.