When new Bank of Thailand (BoT) Governor Sethaput Suthiwart-Narueput assumes his post on October 1, one of his first crucial challenges will be how to deal with the kingdom’s strong currency, the baht.
In 2019, the baht appreciated 9% against the dollar, one of the best currency performances in Asia.
Kasikorn Research Center, a Bangkok-based think tank, has predicted that the baht is likely to remain strong vis-à-vis the dollar throughout 2020, despite the ravages of the Covid-19 crisis and record low-interest rates of 0.5%.
Thai gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to contract 8-10% this year. GDP contracted a whopping 12.2% in the second quarter (2Q20).
The baht’s strength is thus more a reflection of market perceptions of still-strong underlying financial fundamentals rather than projected weak economic performance.
USD/THB Dollar Exchange Rate
Today’s Forex Rates
USD/THB Dollar FX Polls
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
The projected upper bound is: 31.23.
The projected lower bound is: 30.67.
The projected closing price is: 30.95.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 6.8750. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 36.47. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 30 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -118.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX THB= closed down -0.120 at 30.950. Volume was 53% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 23% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 31.070 31.080 30.940 30.950 907
Technical Outlook Short Term: Oversold Intermediate Term: Bearish Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 31.28 31.26 31.36 Volatility: 7 6 6 Volume: 1,948 1,955 2,041
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX THB= is currently 1.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.
Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of THB= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on THB= and have had this outlook for the last 18 periods.
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