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Home FX Thailand Baht: USD/THB (THB) Declines Ahead of Central Bank Decision
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Thailand Baht: USD/THB (THB) Declines Ahead of Central Bank Decision

By
S. Jack Heffernan Ph.D
-
September 23, 2020
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    $THB #Thailand #Baht #USD #Currencies #FX #Trading #Markets

    Thailand Baht
    Ticker: THB=
    Price: 31.57

    Outlook

    Asian emerging currency and stock markets lost more ground on Wednesday, with the Thai baht suffering from concerns about a struggling economy while the Malaysian ringgit fell after opposition leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim claimed he had a majority in parliament.

    This week’s strength of the US dollar continued to weigh, with the Taiwanese dollar a consistent outperformer, thanks to its tech-heavy economy, again the only outlier.

    The baht dropped 0.5% against a buoyant greenback with investors expecting a central bank policy meeting later on Wednesday to lower the Bank of Thailand’s economic outlook for a tourist-focused economy that has seen no visitors since April.

    BoT is more likely to extend credit or liquidity facilities as well as support for the bond market — both government and corporate.

    The meeting also follows protests calling for the removal of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha and several cabinet resignations, which have thrown political uncertainty into the mix, further eroding investor confidence.

    Concerns about rising coronavirus infections globally and the impact on growth have weighed on markets across Asia this week.

    USD/THB Dollar Exchange Rate

    Today’s Forex Rates

    USD/THB Dollar FX Polls

    Economic Events

    Technical Indicators

    Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

    By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 31.32.

    The projected upper bound is: 31.89.

    The projected lower bound is: 31.29.

    The projected closing price is: 31.59.

    Candlesticks

    A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
    During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.

    Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

    Momentum Indicators

    Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

    Stochastic Oscillator

    One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 97.7653. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

    Relative Strength Index (RSI)

    The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 62.80. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 47 period(s) ago.

    Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

    The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 178.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

    MACD

    The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

    Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

    FOREX THB= closed up 0.010 at 31.590. Volume was 86% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 28% narrower than normal.

    Open     High     Low     Close      Volume
    31.560   31.600   31.540  31.590     274
    Technical Outlook
    Short Term:        Overbought
    Intermediate Term: Bullish
    Long Term:         Bullish
    Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period      200-period
    Close:           31.29         31.31          31.45
    Volatility:      6             6              7
    Volume:          2,050         2,027          2,190

    Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

    Summary

    FOREX THB= is currently 0.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.

    Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of THB= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on THB= and have had this outlook for the last 12 periods.

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      S. Jack Heffernan Ph.D
      https://www.knightsbridge.law
      S. Jack Heffernan Ph.D. Economist at Knightsbridge holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Crypto, Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.

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