Thai Baht (THB) Too Strong

Two decades ago, Thailand became ground zero of the Asia financial crisis, when its government scrapped a dollar peg with the baht, a devaluation that unleashed a wave of speculative attacks on other regional currencies and shook the global economy. Now, the baht is again posing challenges for Thailand–but this time because it may be too strong.

Technical Analysis

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Short term: Prices are stalling.

Intermediate term: Prices are ranging.

The projected upper bound is: 34.14.

The projected lower bound is: 33.68.

The projected closing price is: 33.91.

Candlesticks

A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 52.3806. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 17 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 39.66. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 64 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -40. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 15 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX THB= closed down -0.070 at 33.920. Volume was 5% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 70% narrower than normal.

Open      High       Low       Close     Volume
33.980   34.020   33.880  33.920  10,856

Technical Outlook
Short Term:                Neutral
Intermediate Term:  Bearish
Long Term:                 Bearish

Moving Averages:  10-period   50-period   200-period
Close:                        33.96          34.24           34.92
Volatility:                 2                  4                   5
Volume:                   10,320        10,741          10,469

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX THB= is currently 2.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of THB= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on THB= and have had this outlook for the last 29 periods.

“Investing in Thailand? Contact Us.”

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John Heffernan

John Heffernan is a Junior Analyst at HEFFX. John is studying Economics and is a contributor on equities at Live Trading News.

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