Thai Baht (THB) ⇨ US Dollar ($) (THBUSD) Banks Worried – Strong Baht

Thai Baht (THB) ⇨ US Dollar ($) (THBUSD) Banks Worried – Strong Baht

Highlights

The baht traded at 34.12 per dollar on Monday, after reaching 34.04 on Friday, its highest in more than 22 months.
The Bank of Thailand remains worried about a strong baht and short-term capital inflows

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Short term: Prices are stalling.

Intermediate term: Prices are ranging.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 34.57.

The projected upper bound is: 34.35.

The projected lower bound is: 33.84.

The projected closing price is: 34.10.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 1 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 17.0067. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 34.93. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 41 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -107.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX THB= closed up 0.010 at 34.110. Volume was 33% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 41% wider than normal.

Open     High     Low       Close    Volume
34.100  34.190  34.070  34.110  7,917

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period    50-period     200-period
Close:                       34.27           34.45             35.00
Volatility:                6                   5                     5
Volume:                   11,763         11,402            9,878

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary
FOREX THB= is currently 2.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of THB= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on THB= and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.

“Investing in Thailand? Contact Us.”

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S. Jack Heffernan Ph.D. Funds Manager at HEFFX holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.

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