Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) isn’t giving the bears what they want, which is a collapse into oblivion. And while TSLA stock has been volatile, the past year has really been one giant victory lap for the bulls.
At its highs, Tesla stock commanded a market capitalization in excess of $450 billion. That made it one of the largest stocks in the entire market. Think about that for a minute: The company that seemingly everyone hated became one of the most valuable entities in the country.
From its low on Aug. 11 to its high on Sept. 1, TSLA stock surged more than 70%. Admittedly, that was a bit exuberant — particularly given its market cap at that point — as the rally was being driven by momentum ahead of its stock split.
We’ve talked about deliveries and vehicles, but notice that I haven’t yet called Tesla an automaker. That’s because I consider Tesla a tech company with an automotive business unit. That’s as Tesla continues to make progress on the autonomous driving front and also has an energy unit.
Moreover, Tesla continues to deploy systems as it works on its solar roof approach. In fact, the company said, (bold emphasis added):
“Our energy storage business reached record deployments of 759 MWh in Q3. Megapack production continued to ramp at Gigafactory Nevada as production volumes more than doubled in Q3.
Powerwall demand remains strong and is growing, particularly as our solar business grows as many customers include a Powerwall with their solar installation. Additionally, we are seeing accelerating interest in Powerwall as concerns with grid stability grow, particularly in California. We continue to believe that the energy business will ultimately be as large as our vehicle business.“
You see, the energy unit of Tesla has huge potential as consumers, municipalities, states and entire countries start to alter the way they view energy consumption. The world is making an enormous shift to green energy, and Tesla is in prime position to leverage that shift.
However, the company is also properly preparing for the future — like any great company with a visionary CEO. And despite doubts aplenty regarding Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai, the factory went up in impressive time.
Now, Tesla is working on factories in Germany and Texas, as it gears up for the Cybertruck, Roadster and Semi. Regarding the German factory, Tesla expects production to start next year.
To get these jobs done, Tesla raised an additional $5 billion in cash in September. Some investors may not like the dilution, but honestly, I love it. A company like Tesla needs capital, particularly when liquidity was the bears’ strongest argument. And with CEO Elon Musk owning tons of the stock and plenty of long-term investors in the name, why not raise funds?
Tesla, Inc., formerly Tesla Motors, Inc., designs, develops, manufactures and sells fully electric vehicles, and energy storage systems, as well as installs, operates and maintains solar and energy storage products.
The Company operates through two segments: Automotive, and Energy generation and storage.
The Automotive segment includes the design, development, manufacturing, and sales of electric vehicles.
The Energy generation and storage segment includes the design, manufacture, installation, and sale or lease of stationary energy storage products and solar energy systems to residential and commercial customers, or sale of electricity generated by its solar energy systems to customers.
The Company produces and distributes two fully electric vehicles, the Model S sedan and the Model X sport utility vehicle (SUV). It also offers Model 3, a sedan designed for the mass market.
It develops energy storage products for use in homes, commercial facilities and utility sites.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 474.35.
The projected lower bound is: 342.85.
The projected closing price is: 408.60.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.
A falling window occurred (where the bottom of the previous shadow is above the top of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bearish trend. There have been 5 falling windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current falling window even more bearish. The two candles preceding the falling window were black, which makes this pattern even more bearish.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 44.3726. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.78. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 48 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -63. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
TESLA INC closed down -10.900 at 410.360. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 48% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 420.090 420.090 396.030 410.360 38,594
Technical Outlook Short Term: Neutral Intermediate Term: Bearish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 414.99 420.54 255.51 Volatility: 68 105 115 Volume: 27,120,240 55,027,372 77,710,368
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
TESLA INC gapped down today (bearish) on light volume. Possibility of a Common Gap which usually coincides with a lack of interest in the security. Common Gaps are fairly irrelevent for forecasting purposes. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
TESLA INC is currently 60.6% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of TSLA.O at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on TSLA.O and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods.
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