The most heavily shorted stocks underperform the broad market, on average. But try telling that to Tesla TSLA, -1.65% bulls, who at least so far have enjoyed the last laugh at short-sellers’ expense. In January 2020 Tesla was the most heavily shorted U.S. stock, with 18.2% of its float (total tradable shares) sold short. Yet the stock’s gain this year so far is nearing 700%.
With Tesla stock near $620 the expected move by this Friday is above 6%. Bullish consensus in for this Friday is around $653 and the bearish consensus near $575.
After-hours moves could be wild this Friday so extra precaution about any remaining open positions that expire that day is warranted. The after hours moves could turn what was an in the money or out of the money positions into surprise assignments. As with any options position that involves short strikes, but particularly in this case, short strikes within striking distance into the close can be de-risked from surprises by being closed before the bell.
Tesla, Inc., formerly Tesla Motors, Inc., designs, develops, manufactures and sells fully electric vehicles, and energy storage systems, as well as installs, operates and maintains solar and energy storage products.
The Company operates through two segments: Automotive, and Energy generation and storage.
The Automotive segment includes the design, development, manufacturing, and sales of electric vehicles.
The Energy generation and storage segment includes the design, manufacture, installation, and sale or lease of stationary energy storage products and solar energy systems to residential and commercial customers, or sale of electricity generated by its solar energy systems to customers.
The Company produces and distributes two fully electric vehicles, the Model S sedan and the Model X sport utility vehicle (SUV). It also offers Model 3, a sedan designed for the mass market.
It develops energy storage products for use in homes, commercial facilities and utility sites.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 496.79.
The projected upper bound is: 680.08.
The projected lower bound is: 573.82.
The projected closing price is: 626.95.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 76.7309. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 63.35. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
TESLA INC closed down -10.480 at 622.770. Volume was 28% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 37% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 628.230 632.500 605.000 622.770 42,095,812
Technical Outlook Short Term: Overbought Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 622.15 487.66 304.96 Volatility: 76 66 107 Volume: 51,673,740 40,110,140 68,809,136
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
TESLA INC is currently 104.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into TSLA.O (mildly bullish).
Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on TSLA.O and have had this outlook for the last 19 periods. our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period low while the security price has not. This is a bearish divergence.