Shares of Tesla Inc. are taking a big hit Wednesday after a Battery Day that investors deemed disappointing, and have suffered bear-market-like losses this month, but sellers beware, because this year’s uptrend still lives, an Oppenheimer analyst says.
The electric vehicle industry leader’s stock TSLA, -10.34% sank 10% in afternoon trading, and now sits about 24% below its Aug. 31 record close of $498.32. Meanwhile, the stock was still up nearly fourfold — up 357% — so far this year.
The 50-DMA has provided support for the stock since it last closed below it on April 9.
Another downside level to watch would be the Sept. 8 close of $330.21. A close below that level, before the stock can close above its Sept. 15 rebound high of $449.76, would confirm a bearish “double-top” technical reversal pattern, as well as launch a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, which many believe defines a downtrend.
But in the meantime, as long as the stock holds above a rising 50-DMA, as well as its previous closing low, the chart’s outlook is still on the bullish side.
Tesla, Inc., formerly Tesla Motors, Inc., designs, develops, manufactures and sells fully electric vehicles, and energy storage systems, as well as installs, operates and maintains solar and energy storage products.
The Company operates through two segments: Automotive, and Energy generation and storage.
The Automotive segment includes the design, development, manufacturing, and sales of electric vehicles.
The Energy generation and storage segment includes the design, manufacture, installation, and sale or lease of stationary energy storage products and solar energy systems to residential and commercial customers, or sale of electricity generated by its solar energy systems to customers.
The Company produces and distributes two fully electric vehicles, the Model S sedan and the Model X sport utility vehicle (SUV). It also offers Model 3, a sedan designed for the mass market.
It develops energy storage products for use in homes, commercial facilities and utility sites.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
The projected upper bound is: 454.58.
The projected lower bound is: 309.22.
The projected closing price is: 381.90.
A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.
A falling window occurred (where the bottom of the previous shadow is above the top of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bearish trend. There have been 3 falling windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current falling window even more bearish. The two candles preceding the falling window were black, which makes this pattern even more bearish.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 34.5002. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.80. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 14 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -40. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
TESLA INC closed down -43.870 at 380.360. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 50% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 405.160 412.150 375.880 380.360 86,521
Technical Outlook Short Term: Neutral Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 417.48 362.46 198.96 Volatility: 118 123 115 Volume: 75,084,376 76,988,888 83,682,624
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
TESLA INC gapped down today (bearish) on light volume. Possibility of a Common Gap which usually coincides with a lack of interest in the security. Common Gaps are fairly irrelevent for forecasting purposes. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
TESLA INC is currently 91.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of TSLA.O at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on TSLA.O and have had this outlook for the last 27 periods.