Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock reels after electric car maker’s missed sales
Telsa Inc. shares were slammed on Thursday, after weaker-than-expected third-quarter deliveries prompted at least one downgrade and plenty of downbeat analyst commentary.
Tesla TSLA, -4.15% shares fell more than 6% and traded as low as $224.28, but recovered some ground by session end and closed down 4%.
The Silicon Valley car maker late Wednesday reported third-quarter deliveries, its proxy for sales, that fell short of the mark according to FactSet, which compiled estimates from 34 Wall Street analysts.
Tesla said it had delivered about 97,000 vehicles in the third quarter, including 79,600 Model 3 sedans. Analysts surveyed by FactSet were expecting the company to sell about 99,000 vehicles, including 80,200 Model 3s, Tesla’s mass-market vehicle.
Tesla has set a goal of delivering 360,000 to 400,000 vehicles this year, which means more than 100,000 vehicles would have to be delivered in the fourth quarter to even come close to that goal. Analysts surveyed by FactSet are expecting 357,000 units for the year.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives took a somewhat more positive view of Wednesday’s delivery miss, saying it was a “step in the right direction” for the company and delivering more vehicles than last quarter, when Tesla delivered 95,000 units, “was an impressive feat.”
Analysts at Evercore ISI also kept their rating on Tesla at their equivalent of sell, saying that they were concerned about the mix of Model S and Model X luxury vehicles. Tesla said it sold a combined 17,000 Model S sedans and Model X SUVs, whereas Evercore analysts, led by Arndt Ellinghorst, had expected 19,000 vehicles.
More worrying, however, is profitability and cash flow as the company reports third-quarter results by the end of the month or early November, they said.
Third-quarter earnings “are the likely bellwether for the next few quarters as growth plateaus until (compact SUV Model Y) production begins in earnest,” they said.
Developments such as further-than-expected progress in the Chinese factory or a firmer date for the Model Y debut could take the stock above $250.
Analysts at Credit Suisse pointed out in a note last week that Tesla stands to report its first dip in year-on-year revenue since 2012, with FactSet expecting revenue of $6.36 billion for the third quarter compared with $6.82 billion in the year-ago period.
Tesla shares have lost 31% this year, contrasting with gains of 15% for the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.80% and 12% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. DJIA, +0.47%
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
The projected upper bound is: 256.11.
The projected lower bound is: 208.67.
The projected closing price is: 232.39.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.
A falling window occurred (where the bottom of the previous shadow is above the top of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bearish trend. There have been 3 falling windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current falling window even more bearish.
A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).
An on-neck line occurred. This is a bearish pattern where prices should move lower when the white candlestick’s (i.e., the most recent) low is penetrated.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 66.7762. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 47.39. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 49 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -119.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
TESLA INC closed down -10.100 at 233.030. Volume was 83% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 41% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
231.860 234.480 224.280 233.030 15,137,763
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 238.02 231.90 258.68
Volatility: 68 64 62
Volume: 9,002,202 7,145,280 9,074,816
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
TESLA INC gapped down today (bearish) on normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
TESLA INC is currently 9.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of TSLA.O at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on TSLA.O and have had this outlook for the last 17 periods.
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