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Thursday, October 14, 2021

Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) needs to be more than just a car company

Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) needs to be more than just a car company

There is probably no bigger battleground stock today than Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA). The Elon Musk-led electric-car maker garners fierce reactions from both sides of the investing aisle. Bulls say that Tesla will not only produce superior vehicles, but also change the entire transportation system, while bears focus on the company’s underwhelming first quarter, incoming competition, stretched balance sheet, and Musk’s unconventional behavior.

One of the more prominent Tesla bulls is ARK Invest, which manages the ARK Innovation ETF (NYSEMKT: ARKK), among other specialized ETFs focused on next-generation disruption. ARK had previously put forth a bull case for Tesla of $4,000 per share, which it just upped to a staggering $5,905. That is, needless to say, significantly higher than the $190 per share price tag today.  That price target is largely due to Tesla’s opportunity in the autonomous robo-taxi industry, but given that that business doesn’t exist today, those assumptions may be a tad aggressive.

However, even ARK’s “bear” case calls for a valuation of $590 to $1,200 per share just based on the electric vehicle opportunity alone. ARK, to its credit, was good enough to put its valuation model up on Github. But upon looking over the model, I’d say that Tesla bulls had better hope the autonomous robo-taxi business comes to fruition, because there’s a pretty big hole in the “auto-only” bear case.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 244.10.

The projected upper bound is: 209.71.

The projected lower bound is: 166.83.

The projected closing price is: 188.27.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 19.1151. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 24.05. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 21 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -91. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

TESLA INC closed up 1.160 at 189.860. Volume was 15% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 72% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
187.100 192.390 185.040 189.860 11,968,638

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 203.92 250.02 297.22
Volatility: 54 55 70
Volume: 15,274,645 11,350,713 9,620,494

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


TESLA INC is currently 36.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of TSLA.O (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on TSLA.O and have had this outlook for the last 32 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that TSLA.O is currently in an oversold condition.

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