Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) investors are underestimating how fast Model 3 demand is recovering
Tesla Inc. investors are underestimating how fast Model 3 demand is recovering as the automaker prepares to report second-quarter deliveries this week, according to JMP Securities.
JMP expects second-quarter Model 3 deliveries were 43,000 in the U.S., almost double what shipments likely were in the first quarter, but still below volumes from the second half of 2018, analyst Joseph Osha wrote in a note to clients. JMP’s total unit delivery estimate for the quarter is 97,000, “with all of the upside coming from Model 3 volume,” Osha said. On average, analysts expect Tesla to report that it delivered about 88,000 cars in the period.
“In general we think the Street is underestimating the pace of recovery in Model 3 demand in the U.S., and additionally is not accounting for a full quarter of Model 3 exports,” Osha wrote. On the flip side, JMP believes U.S. shipments for both the Model X and S have peaked, although the analyst expects Tesla to update the S to defend its niche in the premium sedan space.
Tesla rose more than 3% in early trading before U.S. markets opened. The stock lost about a third of its value in the first half of the year.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 246.19.
The projected lower bound is: 206.31.
The projected closing price is: 226.25.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.
A rising window occurred (where the top of the previous shadow is below the bottom of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bullish trend.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 62.2867. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 58.11. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 19 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 148.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 18 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
TESLA INC closed up 3.710 at 227.170. Volume was 25% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 27% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
230.210 233.100 226.280 227.170 8,237,964
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 222.88 221.67 285.87
Volatility: 27 58 69
Volume: 8,122,558 12,200,301 9,684,817
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
TESLA INC gapped up today (bullish) on normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
TESLA INC is currently 20.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into TSLA.O (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on TSLA.O and have had this outlook for the last 12 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.
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