Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) has taken investors on a wild ride, but the trend has been mostly upward

Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) has taken investors on a wild ride, but the trend has been mostly upward

Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) has taken investors on a wild ride, but the trend has been mostly upward

Like its CEO Elon Musk, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is as volatile and unpredictable as they come. Tesla’s stock price has gyrated wildly from $245 to $388 over the last 12 months — and Tesla stock is currently closer to the top of that range than the bottom.

Is this electric car maker still the company of the future, or is its future already in the past?

Elon Musk & Co. were hemorrhaging cash earlier this year due to problems with its Model 3 production round. Many thought that Musk would have to sell TSLA stock, as the balance sheet got worse. But management maintained in an April statement that “Tesla does not require an equity or debt raise this year, apart from standard credit lines.”

The irrepressible Musk claims that he lived at the factory while trying to figure out how to get Model 3 production up to 5,000 per week. “There were times when I was working literally 120 hours.” But whatever he did seems to be working: third-quarter profits came in way ahead of expectations at $300 million.

Tesla has delivered more than 80,000 vehicles in 2018, including more than 56,000 Model 3s. With more than 400,000 Teslas on back order, the revenue stream looks good for the foreseeable future.

As Tesla proves the level of demand for electric cars, competitors are stepping up to get a piece of the pie. Mercedes, a Tesla partner until recently, has launched its all-electric EQ line. Audi has its E-tron, and Jaguar is introducing the I-Pace.

A recent analysis by a securities firm found the company made $14,000 of gross profit per Model 3 in the third quarter, during which it delivered about 55,000 of the sedans. Tesla says that a “mid-range” model, priced around $45,000, is coming soon.

Tesla has been a victim of the ongoing trade wars this year. Sales in China plunged 70% in October compared to a year earlier, mostly due to tariff increases. In July, Beijing raised tariffs on imports of U.S. autos to 40% in retaliation for trade barriers erected by the Trump administration. On Monday, however, TSLA stock is surging as Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reached an agreement to lower or halt tariffs on American auto imports.

The eccentric Musk now says he might go live on Mars. Whether he does so or not, Tesla has established its market position well enough to remain a good choice for investors who can withstand some drastic ups and downs along the way.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

The projected upper bound is: 400.24.

The projected lower bound is: 319.12.

The projected closing price is: 359.68.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.

A rising window occurred (where the top of the previous shadow is below the bottom of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bullish trend. There have been 3 rising windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current rising window even more bullish.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 80.4180. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 61.13. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 59 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 174.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

TESLA INC closed up 8.010 at 358.490. Volume was 19% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 62% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
360.000 366.000 352.000 358.490 8,306,511

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 345.29 312.61 311.96
Volatility: 53 88 72
Volume: 6,209,718 9,740,260 9,126,597

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

TESLA INC gapped up today (bullish) on normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
TESLA INC is currently 14.9% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into TSLA.O (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on TSLA.O and have had this outlook for the last 27 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.

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