Steady, Sustainable US Economic Growth Means No Recession in Sight The November Employment Report Sustainable is good, job growth is finally trending. The Key Data: Payrolls: +155,000; 3-Month Average: 170,000; Private: +161,000; Revisions: -12,000; Hourly Wages: +0.2% Over-Year: +3.1% What it means: Job gains in November were below expectations. The idea we could sustain hiring […]
Thanksgiving Football Weekend, Winning the Financial Debate When this year’s holiday weekend discussion turns to the US economy, which it may, you need to be primed correctly. Whether your relatives want to talk about the job market as casual observers or parse Fed actions like superNerds, we have prepared rebuttals for some of Y 2018’s […]
Investors Focused on Retail Sales and Wages $WMT, $M, $MCD, $AMZN, $CMG Amidst overall strong Quarterly results, rising labor costs are a growing concern, with more than 12 companies in the S&P 500 mentioning them in conference calls so far this earnings season. Next week, several retailers including Walmart (NYSE:WMT) and Macy’s (NYSE:M) are due […]
Roaring Trump Economy Benefits ‘Blue Collar’ Worker the Most Monday, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow says American blue-collar workers are the ones most benefiting from President Donald Trump’s robust economic growth. “We’re running solidly. You know who the biggest beneficiaries are? Blue-collar workers. Take a look at the numbers,” the veteran financial guru and […]
US Wages, Salaries Rise by Most in 10 Yrs, 227,000 Jobs Added US wages and salaries rose by the most in a decade while private sector payrolls increased by the most in 8 months in October, suggesting overall job growth accelerated this month after Hurricane Florence weighed on restaurant and retail employment in September. The Labor […]
S&P 500 Earnings Preview: Q-3 Y 2018 $SPY, $JPM, $C, $WFC, $USD Earnings reporting period is here once again, and it always commands a great deal of attention because earnings drive stock prices over the long term. The S&P 500 has been underpinned by impressive earnings growth. The Q-3 reporting frame, which begins in earnest […]
President Trump’s Economic Boom Can Last ‘A Good Many Years’ President Trump is Guiding ‘Hottest Economy’ in World Larry Kudlow, director of the White House’s National Economic Council, does not see an end to the robust economic growth sparked by President Donald Trump’s strategy. “I just do not see where this is going to end,” he […]
US Job Market ‘Best in a Generation’ For a at least 10 years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers touched off a global financial crisis, there was good reason to believe the US economy remained broken, from skepticism about the health of the labor market to the slow economic growth and the record low rate […]
US Jobless Rate Nears 49-Year Lows, Hurricane Hurts Wages, Payrolls US job growth slowed in September, as Hurricane Florence depressed restaurant and retail payrolls, but the unemployment rate fell to near a 49-year low of 3.7 percent, pointing to a further tightening in labor market conditions. The Labor Department’s closely watched monthly employment report Friday also showed […]
The Trump Effect: Americans Working, Higher Wages, Booming Manufacturing The Trump Effect has Made America Great Again, and Is Keeping America Great! The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to a near 49-year low last week, pointing to sustained labor market strength, which continues to underpin economic growth. The labor market, which is […]
US Retailers See Big Jump in Holiday Sales $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX US holiday sales in Y 2018 will increase 4.3 to 4.8% boosted by a strong economy, but will be slower than a year ago when consumer spending surged to a 12-year high, according to a forecast from a leading retail industry group. […]
Hurricane Florence Will Distort Economic Data, Expect Little Harm $HD, $LOW The coming economic impact of Hurricane Florence is unlikely to be large but will likely muddle US data for months, judging from past experience. Last year, Hurricanes Harvey and Irma constrained activity in Q-3 of Y 2017 and sparked rebuilding later in the year […]
Americans are Optimistic About the Future $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Economists say the country is close to full employment, but pay gains for American workers have been flat since Y 2015. Even last week’s upward blip in wage growth could be wiped out by inflation. Yet Americans have not been this optimistic about future […]
Annual Wages Rise Most Since 2009 as US Adds 201,000 Jobs $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX US job growth accelerated in August and wages notched their largest annual increase in more than 9 years, the clearest signs that the economy was so far weathering The Trump Administration’s escalating trade dispute with China. The Labor Department’s closely […]
US Retail Sales Strong in 2018 $M, $WMT, $COST, $USO NRF Lifts 2018 Retail Sales Forecast on Strong Job Market, Tax Reform The National Retail Federation on Monday raised its US retail sales forecast for Y 2018, citing higher wages, gains in disposable income and a strong job market that have boosted consumer spending. The […]
Australian Workers Suffer as Population Explodes Australia’s population will hit a record 25 million on Tuesday, almost a decade earlier than forecast projected, as the country’s politicians flood the nation with hundreds of thousands of immigrants each year, according to latest government data. The Australian Bureau of Statistics estimates the population will reach 26 million […]
Illegal Immigration Crushes American’s Wages In the latest Harvard/Harris Poll, about 48% of Americans say increased illegal immigration to the US reduces wages for workers, agreeing with decades of data that indicates mass immigration’s crushing impact on Americans’ wages. Just 10% of Americans say illegal immigration increases US wages while 42% say illegal immigration does not […]
The US Economy is Rolling Along on Truck Tires Real GDP may be starting to do so at a faster speed now, exceeding the so-called 2% “stall speed,” which was the so-called “New Normal” from mid-2010 through Q-1 of Y 2018 Consider the following: A Supercharged Quarter: Friday, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model boosted the Q2-2018 real […]
Living in the Trump Era of Optimism, Prosperity and Strong Economic Growth $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ Just in case you missed this at the weekend, and remember Optimism leads to Power! Friday’s blockbuster NFPs (jobs) data capped a long string of recent strong economic reports which has led to much brighter forecasts for American growth under […]
US Unemployment Rolls Smallest in 45 Years $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Thursday, the US economic data showed an acceleration in mid-Atlantic factory activity this month, with manufacturers saying they were boosting employment and asking for higher prices for their products. The combination of a tightening labor market and firming inflation bolsters expectations the Fed will […]
JOLTS Spike, Wage Growth and Inflation Ahead $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX US job openings aka JOLTS rose to a record high in March, suggesting that a recent slowdown in hiring was probably the result of employers having difficulties finding qualified workers. The monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, released by the Labor Department […]
President Trump’s Tax Reform: Wages, Salaries Rose Fastest Pace in 11 Yrs US private-sector workers received the biggest pay raise in 11 years in Q-1 of this year, a sign that the tight job market is lifting wages. Friday, the US Labor Department said that its employment cost index shows wages and salaries in the […]
The Trump Effect on US Economy is Powerful $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Since Trump’s recent tax-reform bill repealed the Obama penalties of the “Individual Mandate,” there is disposable income for working families to use toward investing, not just spending. The Trump Tax Plan will also create more cash to invest for W-2 workers each payday. Plus, the […]
President Trump’s Tax Cuts Seen Halting a 3-Month Retail Sales Slump $SPY For sure President Trump’s tax cuts have given a boost to Americans’ take-home pay this year. The Big Q: Will the US consumer putting the extra cash toward savings and debt, or using it to go shopping? The Big A: We here a […]
Healthy Economy, Strong Earnings Will Drive Stock Market North $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ Soon the stock market will reflect the economy, and all systems are on Go. March Private Sector Jobs, Non-Manufacturing Activity and Help Wanted OnLine ADP: 241,000; Goods: 65,000/ ISM (Non-Man.): -0.7 point; Orders: -5.3 points/ HWOL: up 102,100 The Institute for Supply Management’s […]
US Businesses Now Open to Hiring More Than 6-M Workers $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX US employers ramped up their demand for workers in January, advertising 6.3-M jobs at the end of the month, the most on records dating back 17 years. The Labor Department says the number of job opening soared 645,000 in January, the largest 1-month […]
Key US Econ Data: Inflation Tame, Job Growth Strong $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Even with strong job gains and optimistic small business owners, inflation still at reasonable marks February Consumer Prices, Real Earnings and Small Business Optimism CPI: +0.2%; Over-Year: +2.2%; Less Food and Energy: +0.2%; Over-Year: +1.8%/ Hourly Earnings (Monthly): 0%; Over-Year: +0.4%/ NFIB: […]
Moderate Inflation Ahead, Tight Job Market Boosts Wages $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:X) announced plans to reopen an Illinois factory following President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a new tariff on imported steel. A tight US labor market was helping lift wages across most of the nation through late February […]
Inflation & Gold, the Link Between the Elements $GLD The Big Q: On fueled inflation will Gold’s price soar? The Big A: The recent US NFPs report showed that wages had jumped 2.9% in January on an annual basis. It was the best since Y 2009, which awakened investor fears of inflation. That’s why investors awaited Wednesday’s data on […]
Americans Filing for Unemployment Benefits at 45 yr Lows The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, dropping to its lowest level in almost 45 years as the labor market tightened further, driving expectations of faster wage growth this year. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 9,000 to a seasonally […]
US Jobs Report: NFPs +200,000, Wages Rise Most Since 2009 $AAPL, $WMT “Jobs, Jobs, Jobs” US job growth rose in January and wages increased too, recording their largest annual gainer in more than 8.5 years, bolstering expectations that inflation will push higher this year as the labor market hits full employment. Remember, No inflation, No […]
US Businesses Hiring at a Healthy Pace $AAPL, $FDX, $WMT, $XOM US businesses continued to hire at a healthy pace in January, a sign the economy is off to a solid start for the year. Payroll processor ADP said Wednesday that companies added 234,000 jobs, led by big gains in services firms, such as hotels, […]
President Trump Declares ‘America First’ Stocks Surge $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX, $FDX Traders buying momentum keep The Trump Rally going FLASH: Friday, FedEx Corp. (NYSE:FDX) is spending more than $3.2-B on wage increases, bonuses, pension funding and capital investment, due to The Trump Tax Reform signed into law in December. The S&P 500, the DJIA […]
US Economy, Inflation Growing at Sustainable Pace The US economy and inflation expanded at a modest-to-moderate pace from late November through the end of Y 2017, while wages continued to push higher, the Fed Wednesday. “Most districts said that wages increased at a modest pace,” the U.S. central bank said in its periodic Beige Book report […]
President Donald ‘Santa’ Trump Delivering Strong Economic Data There looks to be no end to the strong data. Revised Q-3 GDP, December Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, November Leading Indicators, October Home Prices and Weekly Jobless Claims GDP: 3.2% (down 0.1 percentage point) Phila. Fed: +3.5 points LEI: +0.4% Home Prices (Over-Year) +6.6% Jobless Claims: +20,000 […]
US Big Business Rewarding Employees on Passage of Trump Tax Reform $BA, $T, $WFC, $FITB, $CMCSA Wednesday, several US big businesses announced plans to increase employee and benefits plans after the historic Republican tax plan that slashes the corporate tax rate pass through Congress. Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), Fifth Third Bancorp (NYSE:FITB), Boeing (NYSE:BA), AT&T (NYSE:T), and […]
President Trump’s Tax Reform Will Boost GDP, Wages and Add 340,000 Jobs The final GOP tax bill set for a House vote Tuesday, reportedly will boost GDP (gross domestic product) by 1.7%, lift wages by 1.5%, and add 340,000 full-time jobs to the US economy. The Tax Foundation analyzed the details of the final bill […]
Rising Stocks, Home Values Driving American Household Wealth $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Rising stock prices and steady increases in home values powered American household wealth to $96.9-T, the Fed said Thursday. US wealth has made a remarkable comeback since the Great Recession, when it dove more than $10-T to $56.2-T. The Fed’s latest figures […]
US Jobs Situation Report Beat Expectations The US added more jobs than forecast in November and the unemployment rate held at an almost 17-year low, lower wage gains suggest the labor market still has slack to absorb. Payrolls rose 228,000, above the median economist estimate of 195,000, after a downwardly revised 244,000 advance, US Labor […]
US Wage Gains Stalled Despite Robust Jobs Market, Strong Economy $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The US Jobs Market is “Red Hot” The ADP estimate of November private sector job gains was solid. The increases were across the board as most industries and all sizes of businesses added workers solidly. The 40,000 increase in manufacturing payrolls […]
Atlanta Fed Sees US GDP at 3.3% in Q-4 The U.S. economy is on track to grow at a 3.3% annualized pace in Q-4 based on the latest data on US NFPs and business inventories, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecast model showed Friday. The latest estimate for Q-4 GDP (gross domestic product) growth was […]
Fed Must See Higher Prices Before Another Rate Hike $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The Federal Reserve should wait until there are clear signs that American paychecks and prices are rising before raising interest rates again, a Fed bank president and FOMC voter, said Monday, warning that moving too fast would be a policy “misstep.” Chicago […]
President Trump, “I Do Not Want to Be Disappointed”on Tax Reform US President Donald Trump outlined his vision for tax reform Wednesday that he said would streamline the nation’s burdensome tax code while cutting taxes for businesses and middle-income Americans, and thus warning Congress that “I do not want to be disappointed.” “This is our […]
US Economic Growth Revised to 3%, Stronger Household Spending The pace of growth is in line with The Trump Administration’s long-term goal of 3% as the President’s policies kick in. US Q-2 growth was revised upward to the fastest pace in 2 years on stronger household spending and a bigger gain in business investment, putting […]
The 3 Hurdles to 3% Economic Growth in the US President Trump’s 2018 budget assumes uninterrupted increases in the pace of economic growth during each of the next three years before real GDP growth levels out at 3% for every year thereafter. Our own forecast is less sanguine, as are those of the Congressional Budget […]
US New Home Sales Rise in June, Prices Fall $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Sales of new homes rose slightly in June, hitting their highest level in 3 months, as demand for housing remained stiff, according to government data released Wednesday. But prices retreated from an all-time high and supplies rose, suggesting new construction could be […]
US Home Sales Fall, Prices Rise to Record Highs $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX US home resales volumes fell more than expected in June as a dearth of properties pushed house prices to record highs. The National Association of Realtors said Monday existing home sales dropped 1.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.52-M units […]
Many Active Americans Not Choosing to Retire $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX More and more Americans are spending their Golden Years on the job. Almost 19% of people 65 anni or older were working at least part-time in Q-2 of Y 2017, according to the US NFP jobs report released last Friday. The age group’s employment/population […]
US Adds 222,000 Jobs, Unemployment Up, Wages Flat $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX US job growth rose more than expected in June and employers increased hours for workers, signs of labor market strength that could keep the Fed on a path for a 3rd interest rate hike this year despite lagging gains in pay. NFPs (Non-farm […]
June US Consumer Spending Near 9-Yr Highs Consumer spending in the US rose was $103 a day in June, the best performance for the month since Y 2008, according to a survey by Gallup. The daily spending in May was $104. Americans’ reported daily spending has averaged $100 or more since February, the longest stretch of […]
US JOLTS Numbers Signal Skills Mismatch in Jobs Market Tuesday, the US Labor Department’s monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, aka JOLTS, suggests that the recent moderation in job growth could be the result of a skills mismatch rather than easing demand for labor. JOLTS is 1 of the metrics on Fed Chairwoman Janet […]
US Pending Home Sales Fell for 2nd Month Running $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Contracts to buy previously owned US homes fell for a 2nd month running in April one a supply squeeze, but the housing market recovery remains supported by a strong labor market. The National Association of Realtors(NAR) said Wednesday its Pending Home Sales […]
Market Finished at Record Highs, as The Trump Rally Extends $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Highlights of April’s US Employment Report The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.4%, the lowest since May 2007, the US Labor Department data showed Friday The Spare capacity in the labor market is quickly disappearing, indicating that lackluster wage growth should […]
Expect The Congress to Embrace President Trump’s Growth Plan $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX, $GLD, $SLV, $USO Friday’s monthly NFPs market moving data release attracted much less attention than in the past. The Key jobs report reflects on the health of the US labor market in March, and it is important for assessing the underlying strength […]
Trumpism: Good Job Growth, Wages Steady in February President Donald Trump is already working hard to create jobs, and his deregulation efforts will pay off even more, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said Friday. Case in point: Good job growth in the United States grew more than expected in February, as wages increased steadily. “He […]
Gold Seeing Strong Support On Safe-Haven Flows, Weakening USD $GLD Political and economic uncertainties under the Trump Administration, coupled with a weakening USD since the beginning of the year, have led to a sharp rise in Gold prices for more than a month. Since late December, Gold has risen from its long-term lows around 1125 […]
Minimum Wage Increases Costs Millions of US Jobs State minimum wage increases phasing in around the US will result in about 2.6-M job losses with “minimal” increases in workers’ salaries, a report from the American Action Forum reports. According to the center-right group, 22 states and the District of Columbia will implement minimum wage increases […]
Gallup: US Economic Confidence Highest in 9 Years $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The election of Donald Trump as President not only helped the stock market to reach record highs, but also has lifted Americans’ confidence in the economy. Tuesday, The Trump Rally extended with the S&P 500 and NAS Com at record highs. Gallup’s US […]
President Trump in Action Put Washington in Cardiac Arrest $SPY, $QQQ Tuesday the Trump Rally extended and the S&P 500 finished at +14.87 at 2280.07 and the NAS Comp at +48.01 at 5600.95 all time highs. All of Washington DC is in in Cardiac Arrest over news reports that President Donald Trump is planning a budget […]
US Consumer Confidence at 12 Year Highs Consumer confidence jumped to the highest level since Y 2004, extending Americans’ optimism for their finances and the US economy following Donald Trump’s Presidential election victory. The University of Michigan said Friday that its MSI (final index of sentiment) rose to 98.2 from 93.8 in November. The median […]
Rising Inflation Has US Consumers “Hobbled” The FOMC members are wishing and hoping that inflation will start approaching their target of 2%. That could happen this year, but largely because of the rise in energy costs, not a generalized increase in consumer prices. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose solidly in September, led by sharp […]
Obama’s Description of His Legacy is Excessively Charitable to Himself US President Barack Hussein Obama recently celebrated the 7th anni of the passage of the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act, or as most Americans likely remember it, the $830-M stimulus package. The benefits of the stimulus are up for debate, but Mr. Obama is absolutely […]
Personal Income, Wages, Salaries, Savings Advanced in July $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX US consumer spending increased for a fourth straight month in July amid strong demand for automobiles, pointing to a pickup in economic growth that could pave the way for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year. The Commerce Department said Monday […]
Obama’s Claims that US Economy is ‘Good’ is Debunked US President Barack Hussein Obama claimed recently, “The economy, by every metric, is better than when I came into office.” Mr. Obama has been making some variation of this “the economy got better under my watch” claim since the Y 2012 presidential campaign. The Big Q: […]
US Home Sales Up in May on Imporving Supply $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Economists say US homebuilders will need to ramp up construction of new homes to meet the pent-up demand. US home resales rose in May to a more than 9-year high as improving supply increased choices for buyers, suggesting the economy remains on […]
IMF Downgrades US Economic Forecast The International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its forecast for the US economy this year and said America should raise the minimum wage to help the poor, offer paid maternity leave to encourage more women to work and overhaul the corporate tax system to boost productivity. In its annual checkup of […]
Ominous Business Indicator, Machinery Orders Soft $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX US business spending intentions weakened in April for a 3rd month running on soft demand for machinery, but a surge in contracts to purchase previously owned homes to a 10-year high supported views economic growth was gaining speed. The growth picture was further boosted by […]
HeffX-LTN FX Report (Daily) $EURUSD, $GBPUSD, $USDJPY, $USDCHF, $AUDUSD, $NZDUSD The USD trimmed gains but remained supported Vs the other peer currencies Wednesday, as FX investors became more cautious ahead of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s most recent policy meeting due later in the day. USDJPY climbed 0.49% to 109.68. FX market participants were […]
A Destabilized Europe Will Wreak Havoc On World Markets $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Central banks continue to give financial markets mixed signals. New York Fed President William Dudley said it remains a reasonable expectation that the Fed will raise its benchmark interest rate 2X this year. Mr. Dudley did not worry much about Friday’s employment […]
Americans Confidence on Economy Dives to Lowest Mark in a Year $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX, $AAPL Notable 1: For the vast majority of Americans, the “Dream” of a better life was lost in the early 1970’s. Notable 2: Apple Inc. (AAPL) -NasdaqGS 104.35 Down 0.73(0.69%) 4:00p EDT After Hours : 96.10 Down 8.25 (7.91%) 7:59p EDT Americans’ confidence […]
Donald Trump Destroys Lie’n Ted Cruz In NY, CA & PA Donald Trump said Lie’n Ted Cruz does not have a shot at winning the GOP’s nomination. Donald Trump, in rallies before several thousand people Saturday in Syracuse and Watertown, fired home his message of jobs and the economy. He also kept alive his intense […]