Sluggish inflation gives the Federal Reserve the leeway to keep borrowing costs low and help draw more workers into the labor market, San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly said Saturday. “We’re lucky right now,” Ms. Daly said at University of California, Berkeley’s Clausen Center’s conference on global economic issues. “We can keep the policy […]
The Christine Lagarde-era at the European Central Bank (ECB) is underway and the new President gets her 1st chance to frame her outlook for the economy and monetary policy publicly Monday. Ms. Lagarde, who took the mantle on 1 November from Mario Draghi, will speak in Berlin at a time when policy makers at the […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: Last week the market was in consolidation mode and tested the 50-Day MA’s and bounced and… Employment report showed solid jobs growth in July Major averages found buying support at 50-Day MAs INDUSTRY WATCH Strong: Real Estate, Utilities, Consumer Staples Weak: Information Technology, Energy, Materials The CBOE Volatility Index has […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: Positive finish to a positive week. Again, the longest Bull market in history has relied on low interest rates, and weakness in jobs. So, if everyone else is worried about stocks, capitalize on the fear and make a a lot of money as the market climes the wall of worry, fear […]
Investment thoughts FLASH: President Trump continues to hammer the Fed, and the market smells the cheap money coming. Pundits are calling for the Fed to stick to its mandate and ignore the usual election cycle games. A broadside about the ineffective trade policies and the damage that is doing to growth, employment and price stability […]
The Fed’s FOMC is set to cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points at its policy meeting at the end of this month. Will it settle on a cautious approach or be aggressive to monetary easing despite political pressure for deeper stimulus is the Big Q. There is a case for an aggressive […]
$XAU, $GLD, $USD The once-fringe fantasy of a return to the gold standard is creeping back into the mainstream. It has long been dismissed as a fool’s errand, on par with abandoning the Federal Reserve and other trappings of the modern economy. Mainstream economists deride it almost without exception. Reintroducing the gold standard would “be a disaster […]
$XAU, $GLD, $USD President Trump’s plans to nominate Stephen Moore and Herman Cain to the Fed board, and that move points back to The Gold Standard, a policy option once advocated by both men and President Trump himself. The Big Q: What is the case for returning to The Gold Standard? The Big A: Is […]
FLASH: Top White House officials Sunday defended President Trump’s plan to name 2 political loyalists to the Fed’s board of governors, brushing aside controversies over their personal lives and qualifications to help run the world’s most powerful central bank. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow and acting White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney used […]
When the Fed’s FOMC policymakers met last month and put it 3-year rate-hike campaign on hold and backed ending a yearlong push to shrink their $4-T balance sheet, that was draining the liquidity out of the system and shrinking the wealth of American house holds by the trillions of dollars, they cited increased risks to […]
Monday, President Trump summoned Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to the White House for dinner to discuss recent economic developments and the overall outlook. The Fed is being tight lipped about the ongoing monetary policy discussions with President Trump. Chairman Powell’s comments were “consistent with his remarks at his press conference of last week,” the Fed […]
Fed Chairman Powell not listening, he is being reprieved a the enemy of the US economy and the equity markets. President Donald Trump expressed confidence in the Fed, and its Chairman, Jerome Powell, following reports that he has discussed firing his central bank chief, though the President complained again that interest rates have been rising […]
President Trump is Not Demanding a Monetary Policy Change at the Fed Wednesday, White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said that US President Trump was not demanding a policy change at the Fed. President Trump heaped more criticism on the Fed Tuesday, calling rising US interest rates his “biggest threat.” The Trump Administration official said […]
S&P 500 ($SPY) Will Still Hit 3,000 Despite Fed Rate Hikes $SPY, $BX Blackstone’s (NYSE:BX) Byron Wien says the S&P 500 will still rise to 3,000 by year’s end despite the Federal Reserve’s plan to continue hiking interest rates. “At the beginning of the year, I said the market would reach 3,000 on the S&P […]
Robust Economy All Because of President Trump, Not Mr. Obama It was recently reported that in Q-2 of this year, the economy grew at more than a 4% rate. And it appears the growth rate is accelerating this Quarter as well. At the end of October, the Commerce Department will likely report that the economy […]
China Has Launched Its Gold-backed ‘Petroyuan’ $CNY, $USD, $USO, $OIL, $GLD For the last few years, I have been writing about China’s coming Gold-backed ‘petroyuan’ and that it was imminent, few thought is possible. On 26 March China launch an RMB Yuan-dominated Crude Oil futures contract, it had tried before, but, now the contract has gotten […]
Monetary Policy is the Engine-of-Inflation $DIA, $GLD, $SLV Just 2 Friday’s ago, on January 26th The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) made its latest BEV Zero, new all-time high. Then 9 trading days later on Thursday February 8th it broke below its BEV -10% line in a dramatic fashion. The BEV plot seen below begins at […]
The US is Winning Currency War to Weaken Dollar $DXY, $USD, $EUR, $GBP, $CHF, $JPY, $CNY The US is winning a “cold currency war” as it seeks to weaken the USD The Buck’s nearly 12% dive since the start of Y 2017 is being fueled by fiscal and monetary policies as well as rhetoric intended […]
US President Trump Poised to Change Fed Leadership + $GLD,$SLV, $PPLT, $USD Every US President gets the chance to influence Fed policy through nominations to the central bank’s Board of Governors. But, most often, that chance is limited to a small number of nominations, 3 max, including a nomination for Chairperson. But President Trump is […]
They Call it “Monetary Policy” $DIA, $SPY, $GLD, $SLV The Dow Jones made its last all-time high on March 1st, and since then its valuation has been slowly deflating. It closed this week only nine Dow Points away from breaking below its BEV -2.50% line in the chart below. After the amazing 32 new daily […]
Inflationary Pressures Loom in China, as Economy Firms Accelerated consumer and industrial prices growth indicates nascent inflationary pressure on the Chinese economy, despite the good start to Y 2017. The CPI (consumer price index) rose 2.5% Y-Y last month, fractionally above market expectations of 2.4% and the strongest in 2.5 years. Meanwhile, industrial inflation expanded […]
PBOC: China Will Keep Monetary Policy Neutral $CNY China should keep its monetary policy stable and neutral, a Chinese central bank official said Wednesday. Yi Gang, deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, made the remarks at the annual meeting of Chinese Economists 50 Forum (CE50) when responding to questions on China’s monetary policy. […]
See Gold Price Rising On Risk Off Sentiment $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $GLD, $VXX Gold’s value will rise as central banks Key central banks keep trying to support economic growth with loose monetary policy This year Gold price is up 25% to 1,326 oz, defying shortsighted forecasts that it would lose value as the Fed shrank […]
Weak Crude Oil Prices Mirror US’s Weak Economy $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX, $USO Late last month the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that it was overstating domestic demand for Crude Oil and energy products to a “considerable degree”. Using imprecise and lagging data, the calculations for the amount of product being exported overseas was […]
Caution, Investors are Chasing Stocks, more Tactical than Fundamental $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Investors are no longer running from the stock market they are chasing it for reasons that are more tactical than fundamental: Caution. It is too early to tell where the UK’s new position in the overall context of the EU will be […]
The Fed Policy Makers are Fighting for Their Lives Something interesting happened the Friday (Quad Witching) before Brexit; trading volume exploded on a decline in the Dow Jones. In the BEV chart below I inserted the daily trading volume (mils) for the Dow Jones instead of the usual BEV values to highlight what happened. It […]
Abenomics Not Likely to Lift Japan Out of Sluggish Growth Statistics released Wednesday showed Japan recorded better-than-expected economic growth numbers in Q-1 of the year. However, economists said the real picture may not be as rosy as it looks to be based on preliminary statistics. The reform plans championed by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, known […]
Central Banks Out of “Tools” What is Next? $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX On Wall Street and Main Street there is a growing consensus among participants that the world’s central banks have run out of tools. They certainly seem to have used up all of their monetary tools in an effort to revive economic growth and […]
