Thursday, markets began pricing in a negative US interest rate environment for the 1st time, a place the Fed is determined not to go, as investors struggled with the economic consequences of the C-19 coronavirus chaos. Fed officials including Chairman Powell say that they do not see negative rates as appropriate for the US. But […]
Bond investors are talking about whether the US is heading into a deflationary mode. This year’s collapse in Crude Oil prices and the weak economic data are putting the Question front and center as the FOMC meets this week. The Fed is expected to stand pat in here and assess the aid/stimulus programs rolled out […]
$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX US stocks spiked 9%+ as President Trump joined reassured investors that he is stepping up efforts to protect the economy from the coronavirus fallout. All 3 major US stock market indexes rose 9%+, as President Trump declared a national emergency to help combat the virus and said the private sector […]
US consumer sentiment increased in January to an 8-month high, indicating sustained optimism in the face of the coronavirus and the impeachment trial. The University of Michigan’s sentiment index for January rose to 99.8, up from 99.3 in December and compared with a preliminary reading of 99.1, data showed Friday. The gainer reflected a 6-month high in […]
A weakening outlook for interest rates will dent JPMorgan Chase’s profits somewhat in 2019, prompting the bank to plan in case rates fall even further than expected, Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said Tuesday. Dimon said he still does not expect zero interest rates in the United States, even as he signaled a further drop in […]
One month into Deutsche Bank AG’s boldest restructuring effort yet, the world has turned against chief executive officer Christian Sewing. Or at least, Germany has. Fears of an economic recession and the spectre of even lower interest rates have taken a toll on banks across Europe. But for Sewing, who just pinned his bank’s future […]
Lower US interest rates could help support outperforming US home-builder stocks, even as they raise worries about the economy, while a bonanza of industry data and Federal Reserve speakers next week are likely to help shape the outlook. After underperforming in 2018, the PHLX Housing Index is up about 30% for the year so far, […]
New machines popping up in Russian shopping centres seem innocuous enough — users insert their passport and receive a small loan in a matter of minutes. But the devices, which dispense credit in Saint Petersburg malls at a sky-high annual rate of 365 percent, are another sign of a credit boom that has authorities worried. […]
Rising Interest Rates and the Federal Reserve The US economy is cranking out robust figures 10 years after the start of the global financial crisis: strong growth, historically low unemployment, a soaring stock market. But with the good news come rising interest rates as the Federal Reserve — which on Wednesday is expected to raise […]
Trade War will Raise US Interest Rates U.S. financial services firms Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan said Friday that they expect the South Korean central bank to raise the base rate next month on a modest economic recovery and low inflationary pressure. In a monetary policy committee meeting on Thursday, the Bank of Korea (BOK) […]
Japanese Yen (¥) ⇨ US Dollar ($)(JPYUSD) Risk Factor USD/JPY likely to remain bullish in the near term as dollar surges BOJ discussing removing stimulus and tapering Watch for a move towards the 112.00 handle in the coming week The USD/JPY was strongly positive throughout most of last week as the pair rallied strongly in […]
Janet Yellen on Friday signaled that an interest rate hike in this month’s monetary policy will likely be appropriate, if the economy progresses in line with officials’ expectation. “At our meeting later this month, the (Federal Open Market) Committee will evaluate whether employment and inflation are continuing to evolve in line with our expectations, in […]
Strong US Housing Market to Bring Fed Rate Hike October Existing Home Sales and November Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Index Sales: +2%; Prices (Over-Year): +6%/ Phil. Fed (NonMan.): -10.7 points; Orders: +6.9 points; Hiring: +5.8 point. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that in October, existing home sales hit their highest pace since February 2007. […]
Bond Trader Signaling Coming Inflation The rout in the fixed-income arena deepened into the worst in 15 years as traders sounded the alarm on inflation amid speculation US President Elect Donald Trump’s spending pledges will boost economic growth. Yields on benchmark 10-year US Treasuries posted their steepest back-to-back weekly increase since Y 2001, and a bond-market […]
Post Election Bond Sell Off Continues, USD Surges $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Commentary: The US Dollar (.DXY) Index is up 0.26% to 100.48 today as the probability for a vote to hike rates at the 13-14 December FOMC meeting moved to a near certainty. Higher policy rates at the Fed should encourage capital to flow into […]
The Week Ahead on Wall Street This week 130 members of the S&P 500 are scheduled to report earnings to Wall Street. Included in this group is DJIA component Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) Tuesday. The FOMC will hold a 2-day meeting starting Tuesday. The CME’s FedWatch Tool currently assigns a greater than 90% chance of interest rates remaining unchanged. […]
President Donald Trump Will Pare 70% of Burdensome Regulations GOP Presidential nominee Donald Trump would cut federal agency regulations by as much as 70% if he is elected on November 8the, campaign adviser Anthony Scaramucci said Thursday. Mr. Trump has vowed to reduce regulations as a way of boosting US economic growth, but has not […]
US ‘Flirting’ with Recession in 2017 $UBS A team of economic strategists have warned that the US is flirting on the brink of a Recession. UBS Global Macro estimates a nearly 31% chance of a Recession in Y 2017. The UBS’ credit model, designed to find the likelihood of a recession over the next few Quarters, […]
Gold & Silver’s Run Forecasts a Coming Bust in Stock, Bonds, Credit Markets $GLS, $SLV, $UGLD, $GDX, $CEF, $PHYS In the coming years as investors are forced to seek safe-havens expect Gold to rise to record highs as asset bubbles burst in everything from stocks, bonds and credit. The precious Yellow metal is at the beginning […]
Divided FOMC Stood Pat on Rates, Tone “Hawkish” $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX A divided Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the fed funds rate unchanged for a 6th meeting running, saying it would wait for “more evidence of progress toward its goals”, while projecting that an increase is likely by year-end. “Near-term risks to the […]
The US Fed has Not Delivered on the Economy The US Fed is stuck to actions devised by Ben S. Bernanke that have not worked to restore strong economic growth since the Great Recession The US central bank’s adherence to the idea that unemployment and weak demand can be cured with policies that encourage consumers, businesses and governments […]
Fed Hawks Raiding the Stock and Bond Markets $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Friday, both the US stock and bond markets were in free-fall triggered by US Fed “Hawk Talk” early in the day. The S&P 500 Index dove 2% in its biggest drop since the Brexit vote, US Treasuries slumped, sending the yield on the […]
Donald Trump, “We have a very false economy” Donald Trump reiterated his hardline approach on the deportation of “a huge number” of illegal immigrants, vowing Monday, if elected, “they’re going out so fast your head would spin.” In his remarks Donald Trump described his intention to reporters traveling on his plane with him to a […]
US Consumer Prices Unchanged, Inflation Slows $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX US consumer prices were unchanged in July as the cost of gasoline fell for the 1st time in 5 months and underlying inflation slowed, which could further diminish prospects of a US Fed interest rate increase this year. The Labor Department said Tuesday that the […]
Experts See Gold Rally Extending $GLD, $SLV Gold has rallied strongly YTD with recent world events pushing it higher as anxious investors seek its safety and preservation of wealth and buying power. From Britain’s sudden exit from the EU, to the most contentious Presidential election seasons in US history, to ISIS terrorist attacks, the only […]
The Fed is Out of “Tools” to Fix US Economy $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX New York Fed President William Dudley said in a speech Monday from Bali, “Market expectations, to my eye, derived from federal funds futures prices, which price in no more than one 25 basis-point rate hike through the end of 2017 … […]
The FOMC Meets This Week, Markets Cautions $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Expect the FOMC to refrain from any action on interest rate policy, it may signal the possibility of a rate hike sometime this year (hawkish), perhaps in September or December. Fed officials’ openness to raising interest rates later this year will reflect their comfort […]
US in Low Growth Mode for the Next Few Years $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX US consumers’ expectations for longer-term inflation rebounded last month to the highest level since August, according to results of a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released Monday. Expected inflation 3 years ahead was 2.9%, according to the median respondent […]
Today’s US S&P 500 Action May Signal Market Top $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX US economy’s ill health possibly having been overstated, plus the Dovish talk from the Fed combined Friday drive the S&P 500 Index above its 21 May 2015 all time high close. Friday’s capped an 8-day rebound of more than 6% that restored […]
Global Economy: Stiff Headwinds, Weak Recovery, Risky Future Looking back at the state of the global economy in 1-H of Y 2016, it is disappointing to see a weak recovery and a risky future. In its Global Economic Prospects released in June, the World Bank (WB) revised its Y 2016 global growth forecast down to 2.4 from […]
Market Update: Brexit + One Week What a week for the DJIA, last Monday it closed almost 6.5% from its last all-time high. By Friday the Dow Jones Industrial Average recouped almost all of its losses taken after the Brexit vote over a week ago. Of course trading volume for the Dow Jones increased, as […]
Caution, US Economy Faces Many Uncertainties $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX US Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen told Congress Tuesday that the US economy faces a number of uncertainties that require the Fed to proceed cautiously in raising interest rates. In the Fed’s twice-a-year economic report to Congress, Ms. Yellen cited a slowdown in job growth in […]
America Needs a Radical Change to Address its Anemic Economy $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Billionaire investor Wilbur Ross says Donald Trump represents the “more radical, new approach to government” that the country’s economy desperately needs. While others in America and abroad have faulted Donald Trump’s lack of PC (political correctness), Mr. Ross says such “in […]
Gold Bullion Price Building On Solid Gains Last Thursday, Gold built on its solid gains capitalizing on a weaker USD, and real interest rates dipping to a 1-year low, as inflation picks up in the the US economy. In active afternoon trading Thursday, Gold futures in New York for delivery in August, the most active […]
Janet Yellen in Public Denial about the Anemic State of US Economy US Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, dubbed “the Schoolmarm” is ignoring the Key warning signs that the US is about to plunge into a recession. The economic data released over the past weeks are painting a bleaker picture of the US economy than seen […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX No matter what we hear Barack Hussein Obama, Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sander we all know why the unemployment rate is at 4.7%, yes. Just about 33% of the nation is not working, and that group is a much larger portion of the actual working-aged […]
Investors Prepare, the Caution Lights are Flashing $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX We get recessions, we have stock market corrections. If you do not understand that’s going to happen you are not ready and you will not do well in the financial markets. Over the last several weeks in my daily DJIA technical outlook column I […]
Summer Investment Strategy, Play Defense $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX As we enter this Summer trading season the big Wall Street traders head to The Hampton’s to vacation their trading positions laid out and staked. This year we are dealing with sluggish trading season, and an all but stalled global economy too. Notably, Eurozone business growth […]
Ominous Business Indicator, Machinery Orders Soft $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX US business spending intentions weakened in April for a 3rd month running on soft demand for machinery, but a surge in contracts to purchase previously owned homes to a 10-year high supported views economic growth was gaining speed. The growth picture was further boosted by […]
Looking at Equity Markets for Economic Signals is a “Mistake” $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Volatility in stocks and bonds was part of the FOMC’s consideration for slowing interest rate increases in February. Now a Fed economist attached to the central bank’s Dallas branch says that “relying on the equity market for economic signals is a […]
Bull Exhausted, Will Soon Lay Down, Savvy Money Turns to Gold $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $GLD, $VXX Stan Druckenmiller, the billionaire investor with one of the best long-term track records in money management, says the Bull market has “exhausted itself” and that Gold is his largest currency allocation. Mr. Druckenmiller, speaking at the Sohn Investment Conference […]
Be Alert, Stocks Could Get Cut In Half $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Stocks could lose 50% their value + if the history of valuation cycles is any indication, cautions mutual-fund manager John Hussman, President of Hussman Investment Trust. He is correct and I have been calling for a Fibo retracement in the S&P 500 of […]
GCC Investment In French Riviera Properties Up 30% Falling prices and steady fixed interest rates have encouraged regional investment Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) investors in the French Riviera have increased 30% in the past year, encouraged by low prices and fixed interest rates, according to a luxury real estate investment firm. Michael Zingraf Real Estate […]
Analyst’s: Some Key Reason To Buy Gold Some of the Key reasons why one analysts/author says that Gold is a good buy right now, as follows: “Negative interest rates reduce the cost of carrying gold and are, at least theoretically, inflationary. But it’s the cost of carry that is most compelling as a reason to […]