A Note on Inflation and the S&P 500 Test

A Note on Inflation and the S&P 500 Test

#inflation $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX “Earnings are too good to ignore and if the right developments for the economy unfold, they are likely to grow substantially from current marks. With that in mind, our target for the S&P 500 is 4,250 by year’s end“–Paul Ebeling Note on inflation: the Fed’s Beige Book for economic […]

US Manufacturing Spikes 4.9% to 3-yr Highs

US Manufacturing Spikes 4.9% to 3-yr Highs

#manufacturing “The V-Shaped US economic recovery continues to be led by manufacturing“– Paul Ebeling Monday the IHS Markit and the Institute for Supply Management both released manufacturing activity data for February. Both of their reports showed the sector growing at the fastest pace in several yrs. The ISM’s manufacturing PMI registered a reading of 60.8, the highest reading in […]

The World’s Biggest Central Banks Ignoring Inflation Warnings

The World’s Biggest Central Banks Ignoring Inflation Warnings

#inflation The world’s biggest central banks say they will live with higher inflation and investors now aggressively betting on a quicker end to monetary stimulus are all but certain to be proved wrong. After a 10 yrs of underestimating inflation, central bankers in the US, Europe and Japan have every reason keep money taps open […]

Fed Chairman Powell to Congress: “We do not see any inflation”

Fed Chairman Powell to Congress: “We do not see any inflation”

#inflation #stocks #bonds #commodities #stimulus $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX “Americans do not need aid/relief/stimulus and handouts, they need an open economy and jobs” — Paul Ebeling “The best thing Joe Biden could do right now is stop spending, stop borrowing, stop regulating, and let the economy get better on its own,” economist Steven Moore […]

America’s Economic News is Good

America’s Economic News is Good

#America #news US personal incomes spiked in January as Americans received another round of aid/relief/stimulus checks, helping to re-charge the economy with the strongest spending advance in 7 months. The 10% gainer in incomes exceeded forecasts followed a 0.6% gainer in December, a US Commerce Department report showed Friday. Purchases increased 2.4% from the prior […]

Janet Yellen is Challenging Jerome Powell’s Control of the Financial Markets

Janet Yellen is Challenging Jerome Powell’s Control of the Financial Markets

#Fed #Treasury #inflation #employment #economy #money $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $USD $XAU $GLD $XAG $SLV “The problem with too much Fed liquidity is financial markets continuing to mark record highs“– Paul Ebeling The Feds mandate is to maintain control of inflation, unemployment and long-term interest rates through its monetary policy decisions. Fed Chairman Powell is […]

The Coming Inflation May Be Worse Than the Late 1970’s

The Coming Inflation May Be Worse Than the Late 1970’s

#Fed #inflation $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX “Printing money is necessary in a crisis just as long as it is temporary”– Paul Ebeling In Y 2020, Congress and President Trump borrowed to spend about $3.3-T to lift family incomes, boost unemployment benefits, and support businesses, but most new Treasuries were not bought up by private investors. […]

The Financial Markets Like ‘Cheap Money’

The Financial Markets Like ‘Cheap Money’

#markets #money $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX The bond markets steadied, the USD fell and stocks edged ahead Wednesday as central banks from Washington to Wellington vowed to keep monetary policy loose for a long time, giving investors enough confidence to seek out riskier assets.  Fed Chairman Powell told Congress Tuesday the economy remained “a […]

Lots of Stock Opportunities in the Coming Inflation Environment

Lots of Stock Opportunities in the Coming Inflation Environment

#inflation #stocks #bonds #investors #traders $SPY $QQQ $DIA “Pricing power is set to become a alpha generator due to the wide variance in how companies cope with it“– Paul Ebeling Inflation is bad news for bond investors, as it pares the value of future returns. For stock investors and traders, inflation is not that bad […]

Happiness Blossoms When Economic Growth is Strong

Happiness Blossoms When Economic Growth is Strong

#happiness #misery #jobs #inflation #employment “The best way to mitigate misery is through economic growth“– Paul Ebeling The human condition fits in a spectrum between ‘miserable’ and ‘happy.’ In the economic space misery flows from high inflation, steep borrowing costs and unemployment. The best way to mitigate misery is through economic growth as happiness blossoms […]

There are Good Reasons to Buy Gold Now

There are Good Reasons to Buy Gold Now

#gold $XAU $GLD $USD “The precious Yellow metal has been trusted by investors for centuries for its ability to safeguard wealth and protect their assets“– Paul Ebeling Below are some good reasons to buy gold now, as follows: Should Congress approve more massive aid/relief/stimulus packages on Top of the trillions the government has already spent […]

Hyperinflation is on Pace to Happen

Hyperinflation is on Pace to Happen

#hyperinflation#subhyperinflation #gold #silver $XAU $GLD $XAG $SLV As “hyperinflation” begins to work its way into headlines and draws investor and consumer attention, it is really sub-hyperinflation that does the damage. Here is why: Hyperinflation does not emerge quickly. It begins slowly with normal inflation and then accelerates at an increasing rate until it becomes hyperinflation. […]

Confidence in this Year’s Economic Recovery Soars, Growth Outlook Upgraded

Confidence in this Year’s Economic Recovery Soars, Growth Outlook Upgraded

“Optimism about the world’s economic recovery has raised expectations for future growth and inflation”— Paul Ebeling The US economy recovered at an annualized pace of 33.4% in Q-3 from a record decline of 31.4% in Q-2, grew 4.0% in the 4th Quarter. The US economy is now forecast to slow and grow 2.8% this Quarter, […]

Economic Growth in This Post-Casedemic Pre-Inflation Scenario

Economic Growth in This Post-Casedemic Pre-Inflation Scenario

#casedemic #inflation #economy #growth $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX “The future is coming, be prepared is the marching song” –Paul Ebeling Since 23 March 2020 we have seen enthusiasm among investors regarding the return to prosperity in a post-casedemic pre-inflation world. Despite the slow rollout of the non-vaccine vaccines to the general population, the market […]

Growing Inflation in Food and Fuel ‘Under the Radar’

Growing Inflation in Food and Fuel ‘Under the Radar’

#inflation #food #fuel #FFPI #Fed #money $XAU $XAG $GLD $SLV “The fast inflating price of food and fuel is dangerous, and may have far-reaching societal consequences, hungry people are not happy people” — Paul Ebeling Food prices have been inflating fast since March 2020. The rise is up a lot compared to 3 prior yrs. […]

Fed Policy Remains Firmly in Economic Rescue Mode, Bulls Continue to Run

Fed Policy Remains Firmly in Economic Rescue Mode, Bulls Continue to Run

#inflation #Fed $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX “Inflation numbers this yr may cause headaches for families concerned about food, gas bills and a return to 1970’s-style price spikes“–Paul Ebeling Headline inflation fell from May to June last yr, then spiked in the following months as the recovery began. That will mean higher inflation numbers this […]

Printing Money Augurs Inflation, Inflation Leads to Higher Interest Rates…

Printing Money Augurs Inflation, Inflation Leads to Higher Interest Rates…

#inflation #money #inflation #stagflation #Fed $XAU $GLD “The massive printing of money is going to lead to an economic crisis that Washington insiders are ignoring”-– Steven Forbes There is real danger is printing money, as it leads to inflation and that means higher interest rates, and strains on the economy. Mr. Biden wants not just […]

Mr. Biden’s Aid/Relief/Stimulus’ and the Global Financial Markets

Mr. Biden’s Aid/Relief/Stimulus’ and the Global Financial Markets

#aid/relief/stimulus #Biden #financial #markets $CU $CAT $DE $OIL Investors have been ‘jolted‘ into overhauling their portfolios in anticipation of the promised Biden aid/relief/stimulus $1.9-T plan. Prices of commodities used in infrastructure projects, like copper, and shares in machinery manufacturers such as John Deere (NYSE:DE) and Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) have advanced. Global crude oil (OIL) prices tapped $55bbl […]

Gold is the Proven Inflation Hedge

Gold is the Proven Inflation Hedge

#gold #inflation #hedge $XAU $GLD $USD Gold reversed and is trading higher this week as the USD weakened on Ms. Yellen “Spend big Now, Pay Later” statement to the Senate Banking Committee and the prospect for more aid/relief/stimulus favoring gold’s appeal as a hedge Vs looming inflation. This sustained move over 1829.90 indicate the presence […]

Inflation Looms: Gold, Copper Spike, USD Falls, Big-caps Boom

Inflation Looms: Gold, Copper Spike, USD Falls, Big-caps Boom

#inflation #gold #silver #USD $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $XAU $GLD $XAG $CU $USD $DXY Thursday, Gold and Copper spiked as USD weakened on signs that interests rates will remain at all time lows, boosting inflation expectation ahead. The Dollar Spot index extended declines for a 3rd day running Wednesday, supporting prices of commodities priced in […]

The Walls are Cracking Around Mr. Biden’s Economy

The Walls are Cracking Around Mr. Biden’s Economy

#Biden #economy #retail #sales #consumer #confidence #spending #aid $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX “This past Holiday season, consumers stayed home and gauged the prospects of a Biden economy, retail sales sank on the cracks!”— Paul Ebeling US retail sales declined at the close of the Holiday shopping season, wrapping up a difficult year for the […]

We Cannot Control What Will Go On in a Democrat Controlled Washington, DC, but We Will Predict that Higher Taxes Will Bring on Rampant Inflation

We Cannot Control What Will Go On in a Democrat Controlled Washington, DC, but We Will Predict that Higher Taxes Will Bring on Rampant Inflation

#inflation #taxes #Democrat #Biden #economy $XAU $GLD $XAG $SLV $USD Joe Biden’s 1st 100 days will set the tone for what that the administration wants to accomplish. The new administration’s economic agenda has priorities that may well differ from yours and mine That is not all… The New Republic points out, a newly elected 50-50 Senate “dramatically […]

The Biden ‘Tax Plan’ Aimed to Undo President Trump’s Strong Economic Recovery

The Biden ‘Tax Plan’ Aimed to Undo President Trump’s Strong Economic Recovery

#tax #Biden #PresidentTrump #markets #Americans $DIA $QQQ $SPY $RUTX $VXX Experts are telling us that Joe Biden’s plan to raise the corporate tax rate will undo most of President Trump’s economy boosting efforts as it will send some American companies offshore, keep others overseas, hobble domestic companies and drive up the unemployment rate, thus damaging […]

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

#PaulEbeling #WallStreet  $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $SOX $VXX “The Bulls are still running, despite the chaos” — Paul Ebeling Last Week’s Action Stocks ran higher, and the NAS Comp and PHLX Semiconductor Sector (SOX) led the run North The financial market is ignoring any and all bad news and is focused on more stimulus in Y 2021. With some caveats, […]

Fed’s Monetary Policy will Remain Accommodative for “quite some time”

Fed’s Monetary Policy will Remain Accommodative for “quite some time”

#Fed #monetary #policy #accommodative $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX  US economic growth could surge later this year if most Americans are vaccinated against The China Virus, but the gains would unlikely be enough for The Trump Fed to pull back its support, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said Monday. Even if the vaccines help people […]

Gold Up On Weakening USD as President Trump Threatens Veto of Aid/Relief/Stimulus Bill

Gold Up On Weakening USD as President Trump Threatens Veto of Aid/Relief/Stimulus Bill

#Gold #Dollar #aid/relief/stimulus #PresidentTrump #veto $DIA $SPY $QQQ, RUTX $VXX $XAU $GLD $USD Gold prices ticked higher Wednesday as weakness in USD offset worries about the aid/relief/ stimulus bill after President Trump threatened to veto the over porked legislation. Spot gold rose 0.3% at 1,865.01oz by 0333 GMT, while US gold futures held steady at […]

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is Holding Well Above its 47-yr Average

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is Holding Well Above its 47-yr Average

#NFIB #SmallBusiness #Index “As President Trump fights election fraud, America’s small business men and women remain optimistic”— Paul Ebeling Tuesday’s US economic data review, as follows: The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index came in at 101.4 well above it’s 47 yr average of 98. Productivity in Q-3 increased at a annual rate of 4.6% Unit […]

The Outperformance of the Russell 2000 Deserves Immediate Attention

The Outperformance of the Russell 2000 Deserves Immediate Attention

#Russell2000 $RUTX $RUT $SPY $SPX $DIA $QQQ $CU $XAU $VXX “Tuesday, the Russell 2000 (+1.4%) closed at a record high on encouraging vaccine news and the coming Trump Administration’s aid/relief/stimulus package.“– Paul Ebeling Inflation will likely rise above 2% in Y 2021 and range from 2.25% to 2.4%. The consensus is that inflation may temporarily […]

Stocks and Gold are in an Up Trend: ‘The Trend is Your Friend’

Stocks and Gold are in an Up Trend: ‘The Trend is Your Friend’

#gold #stocks #BullMarket #Fed #economy #recovery #stimulus $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $XAU $GLD $USD $VXX The DJIA is trading at record highs, having broke the 30,000 resistance mark last wk for the 1st time ever. The stock market’s epidemic chaos is over, and investors look forward to continued growth down the line. Now, at the […]

Fed’s Inflation Indicators Flat to Unchanged

Fed’s Inflation Indicators Flat to Unchanged

#inflation #disinflation #Fed #CPI #economy CPI, the Fed’s measure of prices paid by US consumers was unchanged in October, missing forecasts that called for a gainer and indicating light inflation as the medical chaos lingers. The reading on the CPI (consumer price index) was the tamest in 5 months and followed a 0.2% advance in […]

Inflation Risk will Drive Bull Market for Gold,Crude Oil and Commodities

Inflation Risk will Drive Bull Market for Gold,Crude Oil and Commodities

#inflation #gold #crudeoil #commodities #inflation #bullmarket $XAU $GLD $USD $USO $OIL $CU $USD $GS Goldman Sachs reportedly is forecasting a Bull market for commodities in 2021 based on its outlook for a weaker USD, inflation, and the prospect of further economic and fiscal stimulus. Analysts at the bank Thursday predicted a 12-month return of 30% […]

In This Market ‘The 60-40’ Portfolio Does Not Work

In This Market ‘The 60-40’ Portfolio Does Not Work

#PresidentTrump #market #safehavens #risk #volatility #Fed #economy #portfolio $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX $VIX “When financial assets move pari parsu, portfolio diversification becomes hard to achieve“– Paul Ebeling Since the advent of QE in Y 2008 safe-haven assets have become not much of a safe-haven. During that frame, we have seen unprecedented market moves with […]

Inflation is Short of the Fed’s Goal

Inflation is Short of the Fed’s Goal

#Fed #inflation The Fed is determined to drive inflation higher from marks it considers extremely low. For that to happen, 1st it must convince the market and consumers that prices will accelerate going forward. The Key problem is that the measures that bond traders and strategists rely on for longer-run inflation expectations can often give […]

The Market is Saying, “Be not afraid, economic stimulus is coming”

The Market is Saying, “Be not afraid, economic stimulus is coming”

#market #stimlus #PresidentTrump #Fed $DIA $DJIA $SPY $SPX $QQQ $RUTX $USD $DXY “Investors should be preparing for inflation, not this recovering economy.“– Paul Ebeling The US and the been through a profound economic shock with the China ‘Act of War’ virus, but everything every policy-making body in the US is doing is inflationary it is […]

US Trade Deficit Increases as Trade Flows Show COVID-19 Effect (UpDate)

US Trade Deficit Increases as Trade Flows Show COVID-19 Effect (UpDate)

#trade #deficit #dollars #Covid #gold $USD $XAU $GLD “The Trump Trade Deficit Increases Even as Trade Flows Show COVID-19 Effect, Dropping 15% in 1-H of Y 2020 Compared to Same Frame in Y 2019” –Paul Ebeling The trade deficit widened to $67.1-B in August (consensus -$66.2-B) from an revised $63.4-B in July. The widening deficit is […]

The Trump Economy is the Best in 50 Years

The Trump Economy is the Best in 50 Years

#PresidentTrump #economy “The US economy made a dramatic comeback after many years of unemployment and war.” — Paul Ebeling President Trump’s promised rollback of the tax and regulatory schemes implemented from Y 1993 until he was elected, he did triggering the best US economy in 50+ yrs Below are 10 facts since President Trump was […]

This Rebound Is Real, Trump Fed Support Key

This Rebound Is Real, Trump Fed Support Key

#PresidentTrump #Fed #recovery #GDP #inflation #virus The global economy is bouncing back faster than anyone expected, but Southside risks remain and more help from the Fed and other central banks is Key for a full recovery. The US and many other world economies are recovering from a “very deep shock” and should return to pre-China […]

The Trump Fed’s Policies are Broad and Loose

The Trump Fed’s Policies are Broad and Loose

#PresidentTrump #Fed #money The Fed’s policy is already set on a loose and supportive course, and is unlikely to change much for the next few years. The policymakers have offered different views on how long it will take the US economy to recover from the crisis brought on by The China Virus. Boston Fed President […]

Fed Chairman to Congress: “More stimulus needed”

Fed Chairman to Congress: “More stimulus needed”

#Fed #Congress #stimulus $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Wednesday, Fed officials stressed that more fiscal stimulus is critical to sustaining the economic recovery, and US stocks fell as pessimism began sinking in that Congress would ever deliver a new aid package. Chairman Powell continued to wave the fiscal flag carefully at a congressional hearing saying […]

The Fed’s Policy Statement Indicated it Will Move to Stimulate the Economy

The Fed’s Policy Statement Indicated it Will Move to Stimulate the Economy

#Fed #FOMC #policy #stimulate #economy #stockmarket $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX The Fed used its policy statement to begin to pivot from stabilizing financial markets to stimulating the economy, saying that it would keep its current government bond-buying at least at the current pace of $120-B per month, in part to ensure “accommodative” financial conditions in the future […]

The China Virus Will Take a ‘Smaller Bite’ Out of the US Economy Than Expected

The China Virus Will Take a ‘Smaller Bite’ Out of the US Economy Than Expected

#Fed #PresidentTrump #economic #recovery #jobs #growth The Fed boosted its view of the American economy’s recovery from the China virus crisis Wednesday, projecting the chaos will take a smaller bite from the economy this year with 3 yrs of steady growth to follow. In new economic projections released along with the FOMC’s latest policy statement, […]

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street, Stocks are Going Higher

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street, Stocks are Going Higher

#WallStreet #PaulEbeling #BigTech #earnings #economy #growth #employment #interest #Bulls #money #FAANGs $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Last Week’s Action Week in Review: Another week of selling, particularly in the mega-caps The selling from the prior week carried over to the shortened trading week. The S&P 500 fell 2.5%, the NAS Comp fell 4.1%, the DJIA […]

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street, Do Not Fear September

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street, Do Not Fear September

#WallStreet #PaulEbeling #BigTech #earnings #economy #growth #employment #interest #Bulls #money #FAANGs $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Last Week’s Action The trigger the stock-market pullback Thursday and Friday that erased weeks of gainers in the US stock market, may have been embattled investment firm SoftBank, according to a report by the Financial Times of London The report […]

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street, ‘This Market has Legs’

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street, ‘This Market has Legs’

#WallStreet #PaulEbeling #BigTech #earnings #NFPs #employment #interest #Bulls #money #FAANGs $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Last Week’s Action Thursday the Fed Chairman jettisoned the Phillips curve’s idea that rising unemployment means less inflation. In fact, he stated that there is no empirical evidence to support the notion. Technical Analysis NAS Comp gapped modestly higher, rallied […]

Fed Speak: US Rates to Stay Ultra-Low for a Long Time, Market Likes ‘Cheap Money

Fed Speak: US Rates to Stay Ultra-Low for a Long Time, Market Likes ‘Cheap Money

#Fed #interest #inflation #money #market #investors $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX The Trump Fed announced a significant change Thursday in how it manages interest rates by saying it plans to keep rates near Zero even after inflation has exceeded the Fed’s 2% target level. The change tells us that the Fed is prepared to tolerate […]

“A lower US dollar will give a shot in the arm to US exports and overall global growth”

“A lower US dollar will give a shot in the arm to US exports and overall global growth”

#global #growth #exports #dollar $USD $EUR $GBP $USO $XAU $GLD The USD is struggling, and the market is betting the Buck has more room to fall. The trade-weighted USD has fallen 7% from its March highs, and we expect it fall at least 15% from the highs. That will give a shot in the arm […]

Big Tech Profits Driving S&P 500 Due North

Big Tech Profits Driving S&P 500 Due North

#profits #BigTech #records #BullRun $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Blowout profit reports from Big Tech companies drove the S&P 500 to an all-time high Wednesday. The benchmark index rose 1%. Technology stocks accounted for the Lion’s Share of the gains, outweighing losses in healthcare, utilities, and energy. The S&P 500 has been marking record highs […]

President Trump, “Very Seriously Mulling a Capital Gains Tax Cut”

President Trump, “Very Seriously Mulling a Capital Gains Tax Cut”

#PresidentTrump #CapitalGains #taxcut #inflation #indexing President Trump said he is “very seriously” considering a capital gains tax cut. “We are looking at also considering a capital gains tax cut, which would create a lot more jobs,” President Trump said at a White House news conference. The President cannot unilaterally cut the 20% long-term capital gains […]

Gold is +25% YTD Outdistancing Stocks, Gold Bugs Rejoice!

Gold is +25% YTD Outdistancing Stocks, Gold Bugs Rejoice!

#gold #stocks #money #investors #goldbugs #centralbanks #inflation #virus $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $XAU $GLD #VXX Gold is up 25% this year and traded above 1,897oz, just shy the Y 2011 record high at 1,921. Global stocks measured by the MSCI World index, have recovered almost all of the losses they suffered on the instant recession sell-off brought on […]

Precious Metals Solid in this Bull Market

Precious Metals Solid in this Bull Market

#Gold #Silver #preciousmetals #Fed #ECB #RBA #C19Coronavirus #inflation #currencies #stocks $XAU $GLD $XAG $SLV $USD $DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Analysts and economists are calculating the destruction the C-19 coronavirus chaos, and traders in the financial markets trying to understand the ramifications of the virus’ presence. The market trends demonstrate that our prior precious metals forecasts continue […]

Gold and the Stock Market are Moving North

Gold and the Stock Market are Moving North

#gold #stock #market #yield #opportunity #USD #safehaven #asset #investors #negative #interest #stimulus #Fed #inflation #rally $GLD $XAU $USD Negative real yields mean opportunity cost of holding gold disappears. Traditionally Gold has been thought of as a safe-haven asset. But that has not stopped it from rising to 9-yr highs, and within striking distance of its […]

Gold Price Tops $1,800 oz, Posting its Best Quarter in 4 yrs

Gold Price Tops $1,800 oz, Posting its Best Quarter in 4 yrs

#gold #COMEX #coronavirus #bullion #metal #inflation #HefCap #Fed $XAU $GLD Gold futures rose above 1,800 oz for the 1st time in more than 8 yrs as low interest rates, China tensions and virus chaos are driving demand for the precious Yellow metal as a safe-haven. Bullion for August delivery rose as much as 1.3% to […]

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street, Americans Holding a Huge ‘Pile of Cash’

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street, Americans Holding a Huge ‘Pile of Cash’

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX #Paul Ebeling #Wall Street #recovery #cash #technicals #patterns #Fed #Bulls Last Week’s Action The indexes are in consolidation mode, and the leaders are leading pulling back and testing their moves, the trend is up and the Bulls are still in charge. Financials received bids ahead of the release of the […]

Expert Sees US Inflation Remaining Low for Years

Expert Sees US Inflation Remaining Low for Years

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Inflation in the US is likely to come back slowly, keeping the Fed from raising interest rates for an extended period. Over the next couple of years, prices are likely to increase to the 2.3% to 2.4% level, as the Fed has learned its lesson from past interest rate increases […]

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street, Inflation Alert

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street, Inflation Alert

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Last Week’s Action Stock indexes are consolidating, the economic data impresses, as headlines focus on new China Virus cases in the wake of massive new testing. Last Friday was Quad Witching expiration, and we saw leaders continue to lead. Perhaps other sectors will now start to contribute to the uptrend. […]

Fed Vice Chairman Sees No Asset Value ‘Bubble’

Fed Vice Chairman Sees No Asset Value ‘Bubble’

Friday, the #2 official at the Fed said that he does not see signs of inflation in asset values in financial markets. Asked in a TV interview if he saw unintended consequences or new bubbles stemming from the strong Fed policy response to the C-19 coronavirus chaos, Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida replied: “I certainly […]

Gold is Undervalued, Balanced Portfolios Should Own Some, Some Silver Too

Gold is Undervalued, Balanced Portfolios Should Own Some, Some Silver Too

$XAU $GLD $XAG $SLV $USD $GS Goldie raises 12-month gold forecast by 11% to $2,000 oz; Silver’s 12-month forecast at $22 oz Gold prices are likely to reach $2,000 oz in 12 months on the back of low real interest rates and concerns over currency debasement, even as developed markets emerge from C-19 coronavirus chaos […]

The Economics of Negative Interest Rates Simplified

The Economics of Negative Interest Rates Simplified

Here we assess whether this is a sustainable form of monetary policy for central banks in some countries at risk of a deflationary depression. A negative interest rate policy happens when a country’s central bank lowers the nominal monetary policy interest rate below Zero. In other words, commercial banks must pay to lodge some of […]

The C-19 Coronavirus Chaos and Gold

The C-19 Coronavirus Chaos and Gold

$XAU $GLD $VXX $USD The Big Q: How High is Too High for the precious Yellow metal? Q-1 of Y 2020 was positive for gold prices, as the chart below shows. The precious Yellow metal gained 6.2% from 31 December 2019 to 31 March 2020, moving from 1,515 to 1,609 oz. In April, gold rallied to 1,693, increasing […]

There Once Was the Gold Standard, Now it is Infinite Quantitative Easing

There Once Was the Gold Standard, Now it is Infinite Quantitative Easing

$GLD $XAU $USD The US once was on a gold standard. This meant people could exchange their Bucks for a fixed amount of gold. The US moved away from a strict gold standard in the 1930’s, and President Nixon abandoned it altogether in Y 1971. Since then, the USD has been a “fiat currency.” Meaning […]

Gold Finishes a Strong Month

Gold Finishes a Strong Month

$XAU $GLD Gold traded lower Thursday en route to its best month since Y 2016 on the massive amounts of stimulus from governments worldwide intended to stem the economic damage caused by the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak. Bullion usually benefit from widespread stimulus measures as it is often seen as a hedge against inflation and currency […]

Fed Stands Pat on Fed Funds Rates, Laments “Heartbreaking” Damage to America (Video)

Fed Stands Pat on Fed Funds Rates, Laments “Heartbreaking” Damage to America (Video)

Wednesday afternoon, Federal Chairman Powell said the coronavirus has brought the economy to an “abrupt halt” and it was uncertain how long the slowdown would last, as officials held interest rates near Zero, and pledged to keep them there until the nation was back on track. “Economic activity will likely drop at an unprecedented rate […]

“Unprecedented Situations Require Unprecedented Actions”

“Unprecedented Situations Require Unprecedented Actions”

Unprecedented situations require unprecedented actions. That’s why the Fed should fight a rapidly deepening recession by taking interest rates below Zero for the 1st time ever. When the FOMC holds its regular policy-making meeting next week, all the warning lights will be flashing Red. The unemployment rate is expected to reach 2X digits by June. […]

“The Fed Cannot Print Gold”, Prices Seen Higher

“The Fed Cannot Print Gold”, Prices Seen Higher

$XAU $GLD $BAC $USD Bank of America Corp. (NYSE:BAC) raised its 18-month gold-price target to 3,000 oz more than 50% above the existing price record in a report titled “The Fed Cannot Print Gold.” The bank increased its target from 2,000 previously, as policy makers across the globe open huge amounts of fiscal and monetary […]

ECB Will Do More “If Needed”

ECB Will Do More “If Needed”

The European Central Bank (ECB) will take further action if necessary to keep prices stable in line with its mandate, ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said in an interview Saturday. With inflation below its 2% target, the ECB will have to keep interest rates “very low” and liquidity “very abundant”, Mr. Villeroy, who is […]

Gold’s Price Target is Higher

Gold’s Price Target is Higher

$XAU $GLD $USD Gold traded just off 7-yr highs Thursday as investors bet the precious Yellow metal price would swell as the COVID-19 chaos reshapes financial markets. Futures for June delivery inched up 0.3% to 1,746 oz, holding just below their April high of 1,768. Gold is up 16% YTD, thanks to investors who view it as a […]

Investor Sentiment is Turning Positive

Investor Sentiment is Turning Positive

$SPY $SPX The markets move from speculators to investors. There is budding optimistic investor sentiment as numerous countries have taken steps to lessen lockdown restrictions and many of the most gravely impacted countries see the flattening of their infection curves and allow non-essential workers to go back to work Now, we are seeing more and […]

Rx Drug Prices Up 3X Faster Than Inflation

Rx Drug Prices Up 3X Faster Than Inflation

Over the course of the past 10 yrs, the net cost of Rx drugs in the United States rose more than 3X faster than the rate of inflation, a new study finds. The increase affects all Americans. The net cost of a drug refers to the sticker price minus manufacturer discounts. Researchers in the University […]

Market Looks Like it is Trading with a Recession in Mind, Though the Economy is Strong

Market Looks Like it is Trading with a Recession in Mind, Though the Economy is Strong

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX The US economy grew moderately in Q-4, the government confirmed, and may be facing a rocky road in early Y 2020 on the notion that coronavirus will hobble it, and bring on a recession. The economy grew by an unrevised 2.3% in Y 2019, the slowest annual growth in 3 […]

“Deficit Not a Concern if Market Does Not React”

“Deficit Not a Concern if Market Does Not React”

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX “The growing national deficit is a ‘legitimate issue’, but our main focus now is in creating jobs,” White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said Friday.  “Until the bond market starts reacting negatively to that and we start seeing inflation, the deficit is not going to be a concern,” Mr, Navarro […]

Buying Gold: Physical Vs ETFs

Buying Gold: Physical Vs ETFs

$XAU $GLD Gold has been valued as a currency, commodity and investment for thousands of years, and is popular among today’s investors because it can be used as a hedge against currency devaluation, inflation, or deflation, and due to its ability to provide a “safe haven” during times of economic uncertainty. The gold market is highly liquid and there […]

Fed Chairman Powell, “There is no reason why the expansion cannot continue”

Fed Chairman Powell,  “There is no reason why the expansion cannot continue”

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Tuesday, the Fed Chairman Powell told Congress that the US economy is in a good place. With risks like trade policy uncertainty receding and global growth stabilizing, “we find the US economy in a very good place, performing well,” Chairman Powell told the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee. The US economic expansion, now […]

Consumer Sentiment Marks 8-Month Highs

Consumer Sentiment Marks 8-Month Highs

US consumer sentiment increased in January to an 8-month high, indicating sustained optimism in the face of the coronavirus and the impeachment trial. The University of Michigan’s sentiment index for January rose to 99.8, up from 99.3 in December and compared with a preliminary reading of 99.1, data showed Friday. The gainer reflected a 6-month high in […]

Gold Prices Higher Following Fed Rate Decision

Gold Prices Higher Following Fed Rate Decision

$XAU $GLD Gold prices ended higher Wednesday following the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged. The Fed said that job gains have been solid, but inflation remains below the Fed’s 2% objective. The Fed said that household spending is rising at a moderate rate. The Fed will continue to assess the appropriate path of […]

Fed Leaves Key Interest Rate Unchanged

Fed Leaves Key Interest Rate Unchanged

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX , $VXX The Fed held interest rates steady Wednesday at its first policy meeting of the year, the head of the central bank pointed to continued moderate economic growth and a “strong” job market, and giving no sign of any imminent changes in borrowing costs. “We believe the current stance of […]

Trump Tax Cut 2.0 in the Works

Trump Tax Cut 2.0 in the Works

The White House continues to work on a tax-cut plan in hope that Republican lawmakers will be in control of Congress after the Y 2020 elections, President Trump’s top economic aide Larry Kudlow said. “I am still running a process of Tax Cuts 2.0,” Mr. Kudlow said in a TV interview Wednesday. “We’re many months away.” The […]

Fed’s Next Move, a Rate Cut?

Fed’s Next Move, a Rate Cut?

For now US monetary policy is in a holding pattern, but the Fed’s next move may be to cut interest rates given signs the economy may be weakening “The fact that job growth appears to be more muted and wage growth is slowing doesn’t tell me we are running out of workers, it tells me […]

2020: USA, No Recession, Steady Economy, Low Inflation

2020: USA, No Recession, Steady Economy, Low Inflation

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX US stocks will continue to rise this year on very little chance of a recession, and low inflation driving steady economic growth, with real GDP growing around 2.0%, and inflation remains below 2.0%. That is our outlook for Y 2020. We do not see a recession in this year’s US […]

‘Trump Power’ Economy to Be Strong in 2020, Become Even More Powerful

‘Trump Power’ Economy to Be Strong in 2020, Become Even More Powerful

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX By almost every measure the US economy did well in Y 2019 though growth was slower than Y 2018. For next year, contrary to the consensus view from most economists, economic growth will accelerate. And growth could increase even more after Y 2020. President Trump has set the stage for […]

Gold Prices on Pace to Mark Biggest Annual Gainer in 9 Yrs

Gold Prices on Pace to Mark Biggest Annual Gainer in 9 Yrs

$GLD, $XAU, $SLV, $XAG, $USD Gold prices look to end the year more than 15% higher, on track to post their biggest annual gainer in 9 years. “Gold has seen considerable safe haven buying from investors concerned over low and negative yields in the bond market and fearing a possible downturn in equities,” said the […]

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Am seeing earnings revival boosting stock rally in Y 2020 But 1st, this is what happened last week: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has held steady and is not going to raise rates in Y 2020. Chairman Powell is also open to bond purchases. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) […]

US Consumer Spending on the Rise

US Consumer Spending on the Rise

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Americans increased their spending in October at the fastest rate in 3 months even though income growth was essentially flat, its weakest showing in 13 months. The Commerce Department said Wednesday that consumer spending rose 0.3% last month, the best gainer since a 0.5% rise in July. An inflation gauge that is […]

Facts Do Not Square With Sensational Headlines…Tune Out the Noise

Facts Do Not Square With Sensational Headlines…Tune Out the Noise

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Billionaire Ray Dalio said his macro hedge fund firm Bridgewater Associates does not have a net bet that the stock market will fall. A Wall Street Journal article published earlier Friday is “wrong,” Mr. Dalio wrote in a LinkedIn post. “I want to make clear that we don’t have any such […]

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