Last week the headwinds constraining the world economy have just been blown out. Dogged for most of Y 2019 by trade tensions and political risk that hammered business confidence, the outlook for global growth enters Y 2020 on a firmer footing after the US and China struck a partial trade deal and outlook for BREXIT […]
Incoming ECB President Christine Lagarde said the global economy is likely to dodge an outright contraction, though the trade tensions remain the Key threat to the growth outlook. “It is not in the baseline to have a recession,” Ms. Lagarde said in a TV interview Tuesday. “That said, it’s mediocre growth, it’s at risk because of essentially […]
$USD The experts, the President, the IMF all say the USD is too strong in here, but managed money say it has room to run North. So, when will the Dollar Bulls turn to Bears? Since the trade dispute between the world’s 2 largest economies came to life in March last year, USD has gained […]
$XAU, $XAG,$USD The history of gold is nearly as long as the history of human civilization. Gold has been inextricably linked to human civilizations since at least Y 6000 BC. There is absolutely no way of looking at the history of the world without encountering the history of gold. Most importantly, gold has been used as […]
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX FLASH: Wall Street Liked the Trade News and Earnings Reports Moving this Market S&P 500 closes above 3000, boosted by encouraging trade news and positive earnings, guidance from widely-held companies High-level trade talks will reportedly continue in China next week from Monday to Wednesday 10 of 11 S&P 500 sectors […]
$GLD, $XAU, $USD FLASH: It looks like the gold-buying spree by central banks during the past 10 yrs will probably continue for a while yet. In a survey of central banks conducted by the World Gold Council (WGC) and YouGov, 54% of respondents expect global holdings to climb in the next 12 months amid concerns […]
$USD, $EUR, $JPY, $CNY International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Wednesday the USD is overvalued by 6% to 12%, based on near-term economic fundamentals, while the EUR, the JPY, and China’s RMB Yuan were seen as broadly in line with fundamentals. The IMF has been at odds with President Trump over his use of tariffs to […]
Saturday, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he could not commit to meeting Democrats’ new 23 April deadline for turning over President Trump’s tax returns to them, adding that he wanted to keep the Internal Revenue Service from being “weaponized” for political gain. Secretary Mnuchin, speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the International Monetary […]
$BAC, $C, $JPM, $MS, $WFC, $USD, $GBP, $JPY The Fed As the US yield curve is deciding whether to invert/not Invert, investors seek reassurance that we are in a era of non-inflationary growth, and focus on monthly price gauges this week. Wednesday, the US Labor Department is expected to report that its March Consumer Price […]
FLASH: The EU’s economy is cooling more than many investors believe, the slowdown poses the biggest risk to the market. The European Central Bank (ECB) has limited tools at its disposal to respond to economic weakness while European governments are not prepared to respond with spending warns Mohamed El-Erian. “People are underestimating how quickly Europe […]
China met its target for reducing debt levels but will keep cracking down on riskier types of financing to contain risks to its financial system, the banking and insurance regulator said Monday, urging banks to step up lending to smaller companies. Concern about China’s debt is rising again as Beijing ramps up support for a […]
This is All You Need to Know About Bitcoin and Blockchain $BTCUSD, $BLCN Bitcoin and the alternative cryptocurrencies, aka altcoins, are cryptic to say the least. Some people consider bitcoin a currency, others an investment and still others a store of value. Even government agencies cannot agree on what bitcoin really is. The IRS treats it […]
US Economic Growth Forecast The WS-J’s monthly survey of private economists see now the average estimate for US economic growth this year to have increased to 3R, up from projections of 2.9% last month and 2.4% a year ago. The survey of private economists also expects the unemployment rate falling to 3.6% by June 2019, which would be […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX Again, the big cap indexes are set up well. The small and mid-caps are near the old highs and testing. Earnings are set up, ready to drive market North. The Big Q: Will the EPS provide the catalyst? The Big A: Yes, accompanied with good […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX The big cap indexes are set up well. The small and mid-caps are near the old highs and testing. Earnings are set up, ready to drive market North. The Big Q: Will the EPS provide the catalyst? The Big A: Yes, accompanied with good guidance […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX This week it is President Trump and President Putin’s Summit in Helsinki Finland, but there is a lot to move markets during this week. President Donald Trump meets Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki Monday, and that is the main event this week. But earnings […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX Looking at the major US stock market action as President Trump bears down hard on trade issues, focuses on SCOTUS pick, teeing up NATO demands and the Putin Summit. The market will tell us now if the Key moves Thursday and Friday on moderate volume will hold […]
Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX Looking at the major US stock market action as President Trump continues coming down hard on trade issues, and NATO next. Over the past few weeks we have a lot of pundit chatter about a market top, and stocks sold into the test during that frame. Notably, new […]
Do Not See a Trade War With China Ahead US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank (WB) Spring meetings in Washington that a trip to China to discuss trade is in the offing. “I am not going to make any comment on timing, nor […]
China Trade Truce in the Making The words in the air are that US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is considering a trip to China to moderate/mitigate a trade dispute with Beijing. Secretary Mnuchin said he is “cautiously optimistic” of reaching an agreement with China that bridges their differences on trade. “A trip is under consideration.” Secretary […]
Wall Street Banks See US Economy Growing to 4%, Not Collapsing $GS, $MS, $DB, $BAC, $HSBC, $JPM US Economy Continues to Boom under President Trump The International Monetary Fund (IMF) conducts its semi-annual health check of the world economy this week with investors worried that global growth is starting to fade after accelerating the most […]
After a gala opening set against spectacular snowfall, the World Economic Forum starts in earnest on Tuesday basking in robust global growth but facing warnings that the world’s have-nots are missing out more than ever. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is to deliver the first keynote speech of the WEF in Davos, bookending a week […]
US Growth is Expected to Stay Above the Forecast Rate $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Econ 101: no inflation no growth. Investors have been underestimating the importance of US economic growth for Fed policy, and giving too much relative emphasis to inflation and wage data that have tended to disappoint expectations, If it starts looking more […]
Focus China: What to Expect During the Next 5 Years The eyes of the world turn to China as the Communist Party of China (CPC) hold its 19th National Congress, where the CPC unveil new leadership and set the course for national development for the next 5 years and beyond. Shayne and I believe that […]
The Women Entrepreneur Finance Initiative Debuted The Women Entrepreneur Finance Initiative, an effort 1st Daughter Ivanka Trump spearheaded in part to empower womens’ business endeavors in developing countries became operable last week. “The progress that the Women Entrepreneurs Finance Initiative (WeFi) has made over the past few months is encouraging and exciting,” the 1st Daughter […]
IMF Boss to Central Bankers: “Do Not Dismiss Bitcoin” $BTCUSD, $JPM Christine Lagarde, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has a message for the world’s central bankers, “Do not be Luddites” Friday, addressing a conference in London, Ms. Lagarde said virtual currencies, which are created and exchanged without the involvement of banks or government, […]
Central Banks Turn “Hawkish”, JPY Carry Trade Emerges $GBP, $USD, $EUR, $JPY, $CAD Cable, Loonie and EUR all rose last week on Hawkish comments from central bankers. The BOE Governor Mark Carney said it is not the time of rate hike yet. Then indicated the BOE MPC will start debating raising interest rate in the […]
What the IMF did not say is the key here Member countries of the International Monetary Fund on Saturday pledged to work to reduce global imbalances but failed to repeat their past pledge to resist all forms of protectionism. The International Monetary and Financial Committee, the IMF’s steering body, also repeated its past commitments on […]
US President Donald Trump Hints at Bringing Back Gold as Money $GLD We have the Gold, so bringing back the Gold Standard would not be very hard to do. Inside President Trump’s speech at CPAC was what an intriguing observation: “Global cooperation, dealing with other countries, getting along with other countries is good, it’s very […]
FLASH Update: China “Grand Champions” of Currency Manipulation $CNY, $USD, $USDCNY FLASH: US President Donald Trump declared China the “Grand Champions” of currency manipulation Thursday, just a few hours after his new Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, pledged a more methodical approach to analyzing Beijing’s Fx (foreign exchange) practices. In an exclusive interview with Reuters, President Trump […]
US President Trump Set to Name China a ‘Currency Manipulator’ $USD, $CNY, $AAPL, $BA Experts warn investors that President Donald Trump will soon fulfill his campaign vow to label China a ‘currency manipulator’. “Some time in the next couple of weeks, we think it is likely that President Trump will declare China a currency manipulator […]
Gallup: Confidence in a Trump Economy Rising $BAC A new Gallup Poll reveals that the American peoples’ views of the economy has brightened following the November Presidential elections as Donald Trump prepares to take over the Oval Office. “This positive swing mostly stems from surging confidence among Republicans and independents who lean Republican, whose index […]
Greece’s Debt Crises Looms Large Again Recall, that before the Italian banking crisis and referendum, before Brexit, there was Greece’s debt crisis, the 1st crack in the EU socialist armor, it has not been fixed. If you wish to know why anti-EU sentiment and nationalism have developed in many of these countries you do not […]
Money Flowing Out of Emerging Market ETFs In the week ended 16 November $6.6-B flowed out of EM (emerging-market) debt, according to the data, halting 18 consecutive weeks of inflows. In the 2nd full week of November, ETFS (exchange-traded funds) that buy emerging-market securities saw withdrawals around the world worth $1.4-B. While the rising USD […]
Iran is open for business, what does it mean for GCC companies? In January this year, senior diplomats from around the world formally announced the lifting of sanctions against Iran. In principle this put a definitive end to 37 years of various degrees of sanctions imposed on the country. Boardrooms of global Fortune 500 companies […]
US Budget Deficit Rises for 1st Time in 7 Years, More Borrowing Needed The US budget deficit as a share of the economy widened for the 1st time in 7 years, marking a turning point in the nation’s fiscal outlook as an aging population boosts government spending and debt. Spending exceeded revenue by $587.4-B in […]
Economic Watch Shows China’s Economy is Stable China’s rising M-M inflation and narrower decline in producer prices in August have provided fresh evidence of a steadying economy, experts said. China’s consumer price index (CPI), a main gauge of inflation, rose 0.1% in August on a M-M basis, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced last […]
Globalization Backlash at Odds with Elites Plans for the World The policy-making elites gathered in Washington for meetings charged with determination that globalization is what is best for the people of this world, and that is at odds with the inequities it creates. From Britain’s vote to leave the EU to Donald Trump’s championing of […]
Public and Private Debt at All Time Highs $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Worldwide public and private debt is at an all-time high, that is a substantial impediment to getting global economic growth back to normal, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The easy money policies of the world’s top central banks has fueled the […]
IMF Revises US Growth Down Again $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its forecast for the US economy this year and warns that political discontent threatens growth globally. Ttuesday, the IMF cut its estimate for US economic growth in Y 2016 to 1.6% from the 2.2% it predicted in July. […]
IMF Calls National Trade Barriers ‘Economic Malpractice’ Wednesday, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde said the institution would lower its Y 2016 US growth forecast again and called policies that restrict trade “economic malpractice” that would inhibit growth. Ms. Lagarde, in prepared remarks at Northwestern University ahead of next week’s IMF and World […]
New Data Reveals the Public Does Not Trust Government Sunday, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde called for efforts to combat corruption in order to restore trust in institutions and push forward globalization. “Coming on the heels of the financial crisis, this backlash against globalization has evolved into a deeper problem, a growing […]
Business 20 Summit Promotes Green Finance The Business 20 (B20) Summit, which was attended by business leaders and officials including those from the Group of 20 (G20) economies, came to an end Sunday with many consensuses and results, especially a policy recommendation report. The 2-day event, which was scheduled Saturday and Sunday ahead of the […]
IMF has Positive Outlook for Chinese Economy For a massive economy like China’s, which is in the midst of transition, it is easy to dwell on fragmentary data while failing to see the “Forest for the Trees.” While the latest official indicators of traditional growth engines have underperformed, those measuring the new drivers of the […]
BRICS Bank the Key to Breaking Stranglehold of USD The New Development Bank (NDB) set up by the BRICS countries, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, will help break the stranglehold of the USD on global trade, a Brazilian expert said Saturday. “The establishment of the NDB is part of a desire to help […]
IMF Prepares for Inclusion of China’s RMB in its SDR Basket $CNY, $USD, $GBP, $EUR, $JPY The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Monday announced its board decision to amend the rounding methodology for determining currency accounts in the Special Drawing Right (SDR) basket, in order to make technical preparations for the inclusion of the Chinese currency, […]
The Rising Wave of Anti-Globalization Worries IMF Thursday. International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief Christine Lagarde called for global cooperation to improve living conditions in low-income countries, against the backdrop of rising anti-globalization sentiment. “The greatest challenge we face today is the risk of the world turning its back on global cooperation — the cooperation which […]
Global Economy: Stiff Headwinds, Weak Recovery, Risky Future Looking back at the state of the global economy in 1-H of Y 2016, it is disappointing to see a weak recovery and a risky future. In its Global Economic Prospects released in June, the World Bank (WB) revised its Y 2016 global growth forecast down to 2.4 from […]
IMF Downgrades US Economic Forecast The International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its forecast for the US economy this year and said America should raise the minimum wage to help the poor, offer paid maternity leave to encourage more women to work and overhaul the corporate tax system to boost productivity. In its annual checkup of […]
Worst Behind Abu Dhabi as it Looks to Revive Guggenheim Plans The Chairman of the Emirate’s Department of Economic Development said he expected the plans to be revived amid positive economic growth predictions Abu Dhabi is expected to revive its plans for a Guggenheim Museum next year amid expectations of accelerated economic growth, according to […]
80% of Professionals Will Leave GCC if Income Tax Introduced VAT in the UAE will bring higher inflation, society of finance professionals says An overwhelming majority of finance professionals would leave the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) if income tax was implemented, research has revealed. In a study by CFA Society Emirates, 80% of the respondents said that […]
China’s Banks Not Vulnerable to Financial Crisis China’s banks are in pretty good shape and not vulnerable to a potential financial crisis despite a rapid rise of corporate debt in the country, a US expert said Wednesday. “While lending more to corporates unable to pay interest and principal on previous loans means financial risks are […]
Dubai Headed to a Period of Accelerated Growth Dubai is weathering the Crude Oil-led economic slowdown afflicting its GCC neighbors and will enter a period of “rapid acceleration” in the buildup to the Expo 2020 trade fair, the International Monetary Fund says. Speaking to the media, the IMF’s mission chief for the UAE, Zeine Zeidane, […]
A Destabilized Europe Will Wreak Havoc On World Markets $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Central banks continue to give financial markets mixed signals. New York Fed President William Dudley said it remains a reasonable expectation that the Fed will raise its benchmark interest rate 2X this year. Mr. Dudley did not worry much about Friday’s employment […]
US RMB Yuan Trading, Clearing Advocates Rally the Need The US market’s USD-centric approach is changing with the RMB Yuan becoming more internationalized. The heads of a US working group formed to push use of the Chinese currency in the United States claim that expanding RMB trading and clearing there will help both the Chinese […]
Money Managers “Dumping” US Treasuries For Equities $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Money managers are dumping Treasury ETFs (exchange-traded funds) as a revival in equity and commodity prices curbs demand for the somewhat safer US debt. Treasury ETF net redemption’s have reached $2.9-B so far in April, on top of $4.8-B pulled out in March, according […]
