Survey shows analysts expect EIA on Thursday to report a rise in United States Oil (USO) supplies

Survey shows analysts expect EIA on Thursday to report a rise in United States Oil (USO) supplies

Survey shows analysts expect EIA on Thursday to report a rise in United States Oil (USO) supplies

Oil futures marked their highest finish in three months on Wednesday, with U.S. benchmark prices extending their streak of gains to a sixth consecutive session, as signs of tighter global crude supplies outweigh pressure from a continued rise in U.S. production.

The market saw “two supply headwinds unfold in tandem,” said Peter Hanks, junior analyst at DailyFX. Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari is reportedly considering cutting crude output in pursuit of higher prices, he said, adding that such a “decision would signal a conscious effort by an OPEC member to supplement recent crude production cuts” by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

In addition, Saudi Aramco said it would temporarily close its 400,000 barrel-per-day Yanbu refinery for maintenance, said Hanks.

March WTI crude oil CLH9, +1.44% tacked on 83 cents, or 1.5%, to settle at $56.92 a barrel. That was the highest finish for a front-month contract since Nov. 12, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The March contract expired at Wednesday’s settlement. The new front-month contract, April WTI CLJ9, +0.45% settled at $57.16, up 71 cents, or 1.3%.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 11.47.

The projected upper bound is: 12.70.

The projected lower bound is: 11.20.

The projected closing price is: 11.95.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 31 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 12 white candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 94.7581. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 65.93. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 37 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 170.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.150 at 11.930. Volume was 46% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 54% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
11.730 12.020 11.720 11.930 17,007,286

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 11.39 10.80 13.17
Volatility: 23 46 39
Volume: 20,154,696 29,516,380 25,252,230

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 9.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of USO at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 29 periods.

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