Betting odds that earlier had President Trump behind challenger Slow Joe Biden are now up largely due to the impact on public opinion of violence around protests, as well as potential bias in polls.
Based on past research, there could be a shift of 10 pts in polls from Democrats to Republicans if the perception of protests turns from peaceful to violent, he said. People giving inaccurate answers could artificially skew polls in favor of Slow Joe Biden by 5%-6%.
A lot can happen in the next 60 days to change the odds, but stratigists believe that momentum in favor of President Trump will continue.
Slow Joe Biden’s narrowing advantage in polls evokes memories of the Y 2016 election, when such tallies seemed to favor Hillary Clinton strongly. While Mrs Clinton won the popular vote, the Electoral College finished decisively in Donald Trump’s favor.
The Key drivers of the election in coming weeks include developments in the C-19 chaos, which looks like it might subside as the election nears.
Also Key are the outcome of any debates, and the Democrats’ stance on protests. The latter risks turning off voters generally if seen as too permissive, but also could alienate progressives if it is not seen as sympathetic enough.
Have a healthy weekend, Keep the Faith!
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