SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) Monthly Target $160

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) Monthly Target $160

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) Monthly Target $160

Here is a long term (Monthly) outlook on the SPY, we are not going to be generally long again until the market is sub $160.

SPDR S&P 500 closed up 3.909 at 210.240. Volume was 51% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 53% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
206.920 210.250 202.780 210.2401,724,683,136

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 201.92 180.89 135.16
Volatility: 83 59 84
Volume: 2,699,232,768 2,581,085,696 2,460,711,680

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


SPDR S&P 500 is currently 55.5% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of SPY at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on SPY and have had this outlook for the last 3 periods.

Bollinger Bands

On 5/31/2016, SPDR S&P 500 closed below the upper band by 24.8%.

Bollinger Bands are 43.53% narrower than normal. The narrow width of the bands suggests low volatility as compared to SPDR S&P 500’s normal range. Therefore, the probability of volatility increasing with a sharp price move has increased for the near-term. The bands have been in this narrow range for 5 period(s). The probability of a significant price move increases the longer the bands remain in this narrow range.

The recent price action around the bands compared to the action of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) does not suggest any trading opportunities at this time.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).

During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 33 white candles and 17 black candles for a net of 16 white candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 87.3076. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 59.53. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 56. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 16 period(s) ago.

Strength Index

The current value for the 14 period RSI is 59.5280.

The RSI, written by J. Welles Wilder in 1978, can be used in several different ways to analyze a chart.

Tops and Bottoms

The RSI is not currently in a topping (above 70) or bottoming (below 30) range. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a Sell 11 period(s) Ago.

Chart Formations

The RSI often forms chart patterns (such as head and shoulders or rising wedges) that may or may not be visible on the price chart. Since the analysis of chart patterns is subjective, the Expert Advisor cannot find them. You will have to visually inspect the RSI indicator to look for such patterns.

Failure Swings (also known as support or resistance penetrations or breakouts)

The RSI does not currently show any Failure Swings.

Support and Resistance

The RSI shows, sometimes more clearly than the price chart, levels of support and resistance. As with chart formations, this is subjective, so you must visually inspect the chart to determine this.


The RSI and price are not diverging.

Statistical Analysis

Open 206.9200
High 210.2500
Low 202.7800
Close 210.2400
Change 3.9092 (1.89%)

Volume Today: 172,468,305,920 shares.

Statistical Table

smoothed r-squared 0.003

Standard Error 6.261

Linear Regression Slope -0.040

Historical Volatility 0.710

rsquared is currently at an extreme low. This indicates that there is not a strong trend in tact. This value should increase soon. When it does, there is likely to be a new short term trend.

The current trough of rsquared is greater than the previous trough. This indicates strength of the long term trend.
The current slope of the close is negative moving lower indicating strength of the medium term downtrend. The standard error is 6.261 At this level there is somewhat greater than normal volatility around the current trend and traders are probably in mild disagreement, not allowing the security to trend. The price is probably not following the regression slope.

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Shayne Heffernan Funds Manager at HEFFX holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.

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