S&P 500 Posts the Best Quarter Since 2009

S&P 500 Posts the Best Quarter Since 2009

$SPY

FLASH: Earnings season just 2 weeks away

US stocks ended the final trading day of Q-1 on a strong note Friday and the S&P 500 posted its best quarterly gainer since Y 2009, boosted by optimism over the latest round of trade talks between the US and China.

A Chinese delegation led by Vice Premier Liu He will head to Washington next week for another round of talks.

The benchmark S&P 500 rose 13.1% in the Quarter, its biggest Quarterly gainer since the Q-3 of Y 2009 and its best Q-1 since Y 1998.

Friday, the DJIA rose 211.22 points, or 0.82%, to 25,928.68, the S&P 500 gained 18.96 points, or 0.67%, to 2,834.4 and the NAS Comp added 60.16 points, or 0.78%, to 7,729.32.

All three major indexes posted gains of at least 1% each for the week and registered gainers for the month too.

  • NAS Comp +16.5% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +14.2% YTD
  • S&P 500 +13.1% YTD
  • DJIA +11.2% YTD

Ride-hailing startup Lyft Inc surged more than 20% after making its debut on the NASDAQ. The stock finished up 8.7% on the day.

Data released on Friday showed Us consumer spending barely rose in January and income increased modestly in February, suggesting the economy was losing momentum after growth slowed in the fourth quarter.

Growth fears were triggered last week, when the Fed abandoned projections for interest rate hikes in Y 2019 and into 2020

The US Treasury yield curve inverted for the 1st time since 2007, sometimes a harbinger of recession.

However, the yield curve between 3-month T-Bills and 10-year T-Notes turned slightly positive Friday, after being inverted for a week.

  • Yield Check
    • 2-yr +4 bpts at 2.27%
    • 3-yr +4 bpts at 2.21%
    • 5-yr +4 bpts at 2.24%
    • 10-yr +3 bpts at 2.41%
    • 30-yr +1 bpt at 2.82%

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Friday that the Fed should “immediately” cut interest rates by half a percentage point.

With Q-1 earnings reporting season 2 weeks away, investors are focused on what may be the 1st US profit decline since Y 2016. Analysts expect Quarterly earnings to fall 1.9% from a year earlier, according to Refinitiv data. Notably, those projections are often wrong.

Wall Street will be watching economic data with a laser focus next week after the recent warning signals from Treasury yields.

HeffX-LTN overall technical outlook for SPY is Bullish for the Quarter ending 31 March 2019

Have a terrific weekend.

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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