Small Business Conditions Expected to Improve Under Donald Trump

Small Business Conditions Expected to Improve Under Donald Trump

Small Business Conditions Expected to Improve Under Donald Trump


US President Elect Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections is a leap for small businesses, according to a survey of owners.

The November reading of the National Federation of Independent Businesses’ (NFIB) small business optimism index jumped to 98.4 from 94.9 its sharpest surge since Y 2009 with all of the increase in sentiment coming after the US elections held on November 8th

“This month we bifurcated the data to measure the results before and after the election,” explained Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “The November index was basically unchanged from October’s reading up to the point of the election and then rose dramatically after the results of the election were known.”

Among those who were surveyed following the election, the balance of opinion on whether business conditions were expected to improve spiked from a reading of -6 to +38.

For the month as a whole, this sub-index improved to 12, from -7, to reach its highest mark since Y 2014. Similarly, the balance of opinion on sales expectations jumped by 10 percentage points to +11.

“Small businesses like unified Republican government,” said Neil Dutta, head of U.S. economics at Renaissance Macro Research LLC, who highlighted that the NFIB’s index fell in November 2012 when Barack Hussein Obama won re-election, but recorded a solid rise in November 2004 after voters granted George W. Bush (43) a 2nd term.

Donald Trump’s plan to cut corporate taxes offers the most benefit to firms that earn more revenues domestically — a category most small businesses fall into.

The possibility that Linda McMahon, who Donald Trump nominated to lead the Small Business Administration SBA), might roll back regulation and help fulfill his pledge to repeal Barack Obamacare also contributed to higher optimism among small business owners, said Mr. Dunkelberg.

The vast majority of segments that showed improvements in November’s survey were forward-looking in nature; on both actual sales and earnings changes, the balance of opinion remained steeply negative.

The NFIB reading is the latest in a number of gauges tracking sentiment in the US economy to have soared since the election, including the University of Michigan’s (MSI) December report which showed that consumers’ assessment of current government economic policy rose to its highest level since Y 2009.

Tuesday, the Trump Rally extended as the major US stock market indexes finished in record territory again at: DJIA +114.78 at 19911.21, NAS Comp +51.29 at 5463.83, S&P 500 +14.76 at 2271.72

Volume: Trade was above average, with 1.07-B/shares exchanged on the NYSE

  • Russell 2000 +20.9% YTD
  • DJIA +14.3% YTD
  • S&P 500 +11.1% YTD
  • NAS Comp +9.1% YTD
HeffX-LTN Analysis for DIA: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Bullish (0.45) Bullish (0.40) Very Bullish (0.56) Bullish (0.39)
HeffX-LTN Analysis for SPY: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Bullish (0.40) Bullish (0.37) Bullish (0.48) Bullish (0.36)
HeffX-LTN Analysis for QQQ: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Bullish (0.34) Bullish (0.27) Bullish (0.38) Bullish (0.39)
HeffX-LTN Analysis for VXX: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Bearish (-0.48) Bearish (-0.47) Bearish (-0.29) Very Bearish (-0.67)

Stay tuned…

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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