Small Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) exposure could be beneficial

Small Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) exposure could be beneficial

$BTC #Bitcoin #Cryptocurrency #USDBTC #BitcoinNews

The world’s largest pension fund announced a first-quarter loss of $165 billion, which is equivalent to the Bitcoin’s entire market capitalization.

The biggest pension fund in the world lost $164.7 billion in the first quarter of 2020. this is similar to the entire market capitalization for Bitcoin (BTC).

Bitcoin didn’t do any better

Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund, or GPIF, decreased in value by virtually 11% to 150.63 trillion yen or $1.4 trillion. This was the fund’s steepest quarterly decline since 2008.

GPIF wasn’t alone in its poor performance, major stock indexes like Dow-Jones Industrial Average posted negative numbers. interestingly, Bitcoin’s performance was almost identical, where its price from January 1 to March 31 fell by approximately the same 11%.

Thus, this is not a case where Bitcoin supporters are able to champion Bitcoin’s perceived safe-haven status. On the other hand, had GPIF invested just 0.1% of its assets under management or $1.5 billion in Bitcoin, in the beginning of the first quarter, this would have created extreme buy pressure on the market. The likely outcome — a huge Bitcoin bull run and positive returns for the crypto portion of the pension fund’s portfolio.

Small BTC exposure could be beneficial

Yet, this would have been a extremely unlikely scenario. Pension funds are naturally some of the most conservative investors. Buying $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin — around 208,000 BTC — in a exceedingly short time span would have been an virtually impossible task.

Grayscale’s GBTC fund is presently holding 386,659 BTC.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 9,777.32.

The projected lower bound is: 8,757.30.

The projected closing price is: 9,267.31.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

An engulfing bullish line occurred (where a white candle’s real body completely contains the previous black candle’s real body). The engulfing bullish pattern is bullish during a downtrend. It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bears to the bulls.

If the engulfing bullish pattern occurs during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX BTC=), it may be a last engulfing top which indicates a top. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes below the top of the current (white) candle’s real body.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 75.9913. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 36 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 50.74. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 60 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 137.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed up 22.010 at 9,275.680. Volume was 45% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 54% narrower than normal.

Open        High       Low        Close         Volume
9,252.750   9,334.900  9,217.770  9,275.680     226,215
Technical Outlook
Short Term:        Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term:         Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period      50-period       200-period
Close:           9,167.61       9,356.65        8,431.23
Volatility:      24             35              83
Volume:          453,771        440,463         374,393

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX BTC= is currently 10.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.

Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 20 periods.

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