Singapore: STI Index (.STI) total return for the first six months of 2019 to 10.5%

Singapore: STI Index (.STI) total return for the first six months of 2019 to 10.5%

Singapore: STI Index (.STI) total return for the first six months of 2019 to 10.5%

Total derivatives traded volume edged up 17% YoY to 20.8 million contracts in June but fell 14% MoM as compared to the volume in May, according to an SGX report.

Total securities market turnover value dipped 5% MoM to $21.9b, whilst securities daily average value (SDAV) gained 5% to $1.2b.

Asian equity markets saw broad gains in June on improved market sentiment, following a global sell-off in May, with MSCI Singapore Index (SiMSCI) coming in as the top performing index. The Straits Times Index (STI) recovered 6.5% in June, bringing STI total return for the first six months of 2019 to 10.5%.

Volumes of SGX’s portfolio of NTR futures doubled YoY to a new monthly volume record of 1.4 million lots, with open interest hitting record high of 1 million lots as of 20 June. MSCI EM Asia, MSCI China, MSCI Japan, MSCI India and MSCI Taiwan were amongst the most actively traded contracts. MSCI EM Asia’s contract alone attracted about US$8b in notional open interest, which grew 3.4 times YoY.

All sectors registered gains in the month of June, with Communications, Banks and Technology stocks leading the broader market. REITs, Communications Services and Industrials sectors drove institutional investors net buying activities. The top net sell sectors were Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Healthcare.

Market turnover value of exchange traded funds (ETFs) rose 17% MoM to $205m, whilst the market turnover value of structured warrants and daily leverage certificates (DLCs) slipped 2% to $801m. Outstanding value of DLCs grew five times YoY to $15m in June 2019, on the back of growing market participation. There are now 75 DLCs, including 56 single stock DLCs.

Total funds raised through bond listings more than doubled as well, rocketing 102% MoM and 132% YoY to $26.8b. The number of bond listings rose 33% YoY to 53 in June.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 3,277.37.

The projected upper bound is: 3,409.44.

The projected lower bound is: 3,268.74.

The projected closing price is: 3,339.09.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 31 white candles and 18 black candles for a net of 13 white candles.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 24.8055. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 61.25. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 22. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

STRAITS TIMES closed up 10.960 at 3,340.420. Volume was 20% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 13% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
3,339.4603,357.3603,336.2503,340.420 168,813,200

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 3,350.42 3,254.94 3,190.79
Volatility: 12 14 15
Volume: 220,447,296 212,578,608 213,224,608

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

STRAITS TIMES is currently 4.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into .STI (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on .STI and have had this outlook for the last 16 periods.

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