Singapore: STI Index (.STI) Target 3350.00

Singapore: STI Index (.STI) Target 3350.00

Singapore: STI Index (.STI) Target 3350.00

THE storm of uncertainties, ranging from US-China trade tariffs to the recent tumbles in the local equity market, have made it more difficult to predict the outlook for local equities, but analysts are mixed on what the second half could bring.

At the start of the year, many were predicting that the Straits Times Index (STI) would hit nearly 3,600 by the end of 2018, following a bull run at the end of last year, when the index jumped 18 per cent to close at 3,402.92 points.

A few bulls are standing by their year-end forecasts for STI to hit between 3,600 and 3,800; others are bearish on its prospects.

As of Wednesday, the STI had largely recouped the losses from the twin troubles of property cooling measures and trade tariffs the week before, but still closed 4.52 per cent down for the year to date (YTD).

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 3,369.78.

The projected upper bound is: 3,320.86.

The projected lower bound is: 3,172.25.

The projected closing price is: 3,246.56.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 83.8114. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 40.60. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 14. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

STRAITS TIMES closed up 3.930 at 3,253.010. Volume was 2% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 25% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
3,247.8603,263.4203,240.2203,253.010 256,828,256

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 3,244.27 3,405.55 3,438.63
Volatility: 18 14 14
Volume: 272,947,264 275,317,248 239,663,824

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

STRAITS TIMES is currently 5.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of .STI at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on .STI and have had this outlook for the last 36 periods.

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