Singapore: STI Index (.STI) retail sales slump 6.0% in December

Singapore: STI Index (.STI) retail sales slump 6.0% in December

Singapore: STI Index (.STI) retail sales slump 6.0% in December

Retail sales in Singapore fell by 6.0% on a year-on-year basis in December, worsening from the 2.4% decline in the previous month as sales from all segments in the index including motor vehicle sales and computer and telecommunications equipment fell except for medical goods and toiletries and other retail items.

Total receipts reached around S$4.3 billion in December, with online retail sales contributing about 5.5%. Excluding motor sales, retail sales fell by 4.1%, the Department of Statistics Singapore said on Tuesday.

The biggest drag came from motor vehicle sales which plunged by 20.7%, following the 15.1% decline in the previous month.

Petrol service stations saw sales fall by 0.4%, reversing from the 3.1% gain in November. Sales of computer and telecommunications equipment declined 16.8% due to a high base effect from a year ago which had registered higher sales arising from major phone launches around the same period.

Sales of recreational goods, watches and jewellery, and furniture and household equipment industries decreased between 3.9% and 5.8%, attributed to lower demand for sporting goods, jewellery and furniture.

The medical goods and toiletries segment saw sales increase by 1.8% while other retail items rose in sales by 0.5% for last month.

Food and beverage services’ receipts up 4.5%

Receipts of food and beverage services increased by 4.5% in December from a year ago, with total receipts at around S$925 million, higher than S$886 million in December 2017.

For that month, all segments in the index rose. Restaurants, food caterers, fast food outlets, and other eateries (for example, cafes) saw increased sales compared to a year ago, up by 5.0%, 6.6%, 5.9%, and 2.5%, respectively.

Compared to the previous month, seasonally-adjusted retail sales fell by 3.4%, while food and beverage services rose by 0.6%.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 3,282.48.

The projected lower bound is: 3,123.49.

The projected closing price is: 3,202.98.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 1 white candles.

A bearish harami occurred (where the current small black body is contained within an unusually large white body). During an uptrend (which appears to be the case with STRAITS TIMES) this pattern implies an end to the rally as the bulls appear to have exhausted themselves.

During a downtrend the bearish harami pattern is bullish as the bulls appear to be gaining strength as the bears weaken.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 68.6018. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 57.59. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 70 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 91. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 16 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

STRAITS TIMES closed down -5.120 at 3,201.150. Volume was 20% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 68% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
3,202.8603,213.6803,198.7503,201.150 170,851,504

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 3,193.51 3,134.34 3,223.29
Volatility: 6 16 15
Volume: 196,491,968 196,457,744 230,628,016

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

STRAITS TIMES is currently 0.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of .STI at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on .STI and have had this outlook for the last 22 periods.

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