Singapore: STI Index (.STI) manufacturing PMI contracts in November

Singapore: STI Index (.STI) manufacturing PMI contracts in November

Singapore: STI Index (.STI) manufacturing PMI contracts in November

A Barometer of Singapore’s electronics manufacturing activity dipped into contractionary territory for the first time in more than two years in November, as US-China trade tensions and the peaking of the global semiconductor cycle weighed on sentiment.

The latest electronics sector Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) extended its decline by 0.6 point from the previous month to register a reading of 49.9. This came after 27 months of consecutive expansion and was a touch below the threshold of 50. A reading below 50 signals a contraction of the sector.

The Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management (SIPMM), which compiles the data, attributed the decline to slower expansion in new orders, new exports, factory output, and inventory.

The indexes of finished goods, imports and input prices continued to expand, but at a slower pace. Meanwhile, the order backlog index continued to contract for the seventh straight month.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 3,277.47.

The projected lower bound is: 3,102.69.

The projected closing price is: 3,190.08.

Candlesticks

A big white candle occurred. This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “low,” it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or retracement level), the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.

A rising window occurred (where the top of the previous shadow is below the bottom of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bullish trend. There have been 7 rising windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current rising window even more bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 86.3312. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 18 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 68.12. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 22 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 218.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 21 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

STRAITS TIMES closed up 73.010 at 3,190.620. Volume was 32% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 24% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
3,154.2203,192.8803,153.7103,190.620 302,565,440

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 3,085.54 3,101.31 3,310.15
Volatility: 17 18 16
Volume: 218,734,848 232,393,888 242,410,432

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

STRAITS TIMES gapped up today (bullish) on normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
STRAITS TIMES is currently 3.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into .STI (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on .STI and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods.

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