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Singapore: STI Index (.STI) economy is expected to grow 0.7 percent this year

Singapore: STI Index (.STI) economy is expected to grow 0.7 percent this year

The Singapore economy is expected to grow 0.7 percent this year, up from 0.6 percent in the previous survey in September, according to the latest quarterly poll of professional forecasters by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) released December 11.

The Singapore economy expanded by 0.5 percent in the third quarter compared with the same period last year, beating the estimate of 0.3 percent projected by private economists in the September survey.

Economists polled now say they expect growth in the fourth quarter to come in at 1 percent year on year.

They tip growth to rise to 1.5 percent next year, down slightly from 1.6 percent previously. However, the range of forecasts has tightened to 1.5 to 1.9 percent, from 1 to 1.9 percent. The Government’s own forecast is for 0.5 to 2.5 percent growth in 2020.

This comes on the back of the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) announcing last month that the economy is expected to grow by 0.5 to 1 percent this year, when it raised the lower end in the previous forecast range of 0 to 1 percent growth.

The latest quarterly survey indicated that further escalation of trade tensions, in particular between China and the US, topped the list of downside risks for 87.5 percent of the 22 respondents.

Other downside risks include a “sharper-than-expected” slowdown in China’s economic growth, cited by 43.8 percent of respondents in the December survey as compared to the previous 50 percent.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 3,225.80.

The projected lower bound is: 3,122.77.

The projected closing price is: 3,174.29.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 1 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 44.6221. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 44.23. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 23 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -71. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 19 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

STRAITS TIMES closed up 10.010 at 3,172.900. Volume was 19% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 37% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
3,160.2003,187.3303,159.5003,172.900 202,358,848
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 3,179.99 3,184.78 3,224.33
Volatility: 8 10 12
Volume: 269,259,456 266,927,248 228,054,416

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

STRAITS TIMES is currently 1.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of .STI (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on .STI and have had this outlook for the last 9 periods.

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