Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) Yawns as Trump Touts ‘Phase One’
U.S. Ends Week with Mixed Numbers
The U.S. ended a busy week with a host of releases on Friday. Construction numbers for December were mixed. Building permits fell to 1.42 million, down from 1.48 million a month earlier. Housing starts were unexpectedly strong, climbing from 1.37 million to 1.61 million. This easily beat the estimate of 1.38 million. Consumer confidence remains steady, as UoM Consumer Sentiment ticked lower to 99.1, down from 99.2 pts. Finally, JOLTS Job Openings slowed to 6.80 million, shy of the estimate of 7.24 million. This was the weakest reading since June 2018.
Silver Yawns as Trump Touts ‘Phase One’
The U.S. and China signed the Phase One trade accord on Thursday in Washington. Predictably, President Trump described the event in glowing terms, and will likely point to the deal as a major victory of his foreign policy. However, the markets have not bought in the excitement, with critics viewing the deal as little more than a truce in the ongoing trade war. Indeed, Phase One does not remove all tariffs between the U.S. and China, and Chinese officials have been mum on their commitments under the agreement to purchase U.S. goods and services. Still, this is the most progress we’ve seen since the trade war started in the summer of 2018, and Trump has said that a “Phase Two” round of talks will follow shortly.
Silver Technical Analysis
The key 18.00 level remains fluid, as silver pushed above this line on Friday. session. Above, there is resistance at 18.60, which is protecting the 19.00 line. Silver touched a low of 17.68 last week, but could not break below nearby support levels. The 50-EMA line is at 17.64 and this is followed by support at 17.50. Below, we have support at the round level of 17.00.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 17.57.
The projected upper bound is: 18.55.
The projected lower bound is: 17.63.
The projected closing price is: 18.09.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 30 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 11 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 69.9316. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 58.84. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 16. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAG= closed up 0.067 at 18.065. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 46% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
17.995 18.121 17.960 18.065 32,568
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 18.02 17.34 16.58
Volatility: 19 17 24
Volume: 3,257 651 163
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAG= is currently 9.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAG= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 21 periods.
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