Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) weaken on decent U.S. jobs data
Gold and silver prices are modestly down in early U.S. trading Friday, following what the marketplace perceives to be a generally upbeat U.S. employment report—even though the key non-farm payrolls number came in slightly lower than expected. December gold futures were last down $3.50 an ounce at 1,510.30. December Comex silver prices were last down $0.166 at $17.515 an ounce.
The U.S. employment situation report for September from the Labor Department showed the key non-farm payrolls number at up 136,000. That was slightly below the consensus forecast of up 145,000. However, some other internals of the report were deemed as upbeat, including the overall unemployment rate at a 50-year low of 3.5%, which was lower than expected. Still, it would have taken a significantly stronger-than-expected jobs report today to sway traders and investors away from the general notion that another U.S. interest rate cut is coming from the Federal Reserve soon, following this week’s very poor U.S. and European manufacturing reports.
December silver futures bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. A four-week-old downtrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $18.00 an ounce.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at this week’s low of $16.94. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $17.745 and then at this week’s high of $17.845. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $17.33 and then at Wednesday’s low of $17.24.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 18.57.
The projected lower bound is: 16.58.
The projected closing price is: 17.57.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.
A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.
A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 66.3522. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 47.54. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 21 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -59. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 19 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAG= closed down -0.005 at 17.550. Volume was -0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 4% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
17.554 17.648 17.260 17.550 0
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 17.73 17.55 15.85
Volatility: 40 35 23
Volume: 0 0 0
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAG= is currently 10.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAG= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.