Home Commodities Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) very likely that we have seen...

Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) very likely that we have seen at the very least a short-term top


Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) very likely that we have seen at the very least a short-term top

Silver markets fell rather hard during the session on Monday, slicing through the $14.75 level, showing just how difficult it’s going to be to continue to go higher. What’s even more interesting is that the candle stick from the day wiped out a couple of very bullish candlesticks.

As the market continues to show the $15 level as important, a certain amount of attention needs to be paid to this place. Quite frankly, the candle stick for the Monday session is crucial, because if we can break down below it I think that we could go down to the $14.50 level.

The alternate scenario is that we try to recover, but it’s obvious that the $15 level will be very difficult to break above, and ultimately I believe that the markets continue to be very scattered as far as appetite is concerned, and of course risk aversion.

This is a market that seems to have a lot of negative pressure above it, as silver has not been able to rally as much as Gold had been in the past. There is a lot of synthetic short positioning in this market via derivatives, so it does struggle to rally longer-term.

However, if we were to break above the highs of the session on Friday, then we probably go looking towards the $15.33 level which is the 200 day EMA. Overall, I think it is going to be a day-to-day situation, but clearly Monday has been a shot across the bow of the bullish traders, and therefore I think a pullback is probably more likely than not.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 15.02.

The projected lower bound is: 14.30.

The projected closing price is: 14.66.


A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 10 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 52.9342. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 48.11. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 15 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 53. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAG= closed down -0.320 at 14.670. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 6% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
14.990 15.015 14.600 14.670 15,623

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 14.67 14.82 14.90
Volatility: 20 15 18
Volume: 1,562 312 78

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


PREC.M.XAG= is currently 1.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of XAG= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 3 periods.

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