Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) trying to decide where it wants to go for the longer-term move

Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) trying to decide where it wants to go for the longer-term move

Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) trying to decide where it wants to go for the longer-term move

Silver markets fell a bit during the trading session on Thursday, testing the uptrend line that has been so crucial for this market. At this point, it should also be noted that the 50 day EMA sits just above, and that of course can cause a certain amount of resistance.

It certainly looks as if silver is trying to decide where it wants to go for the longer-term move, so it will be interesting to see how this plays out. All things being equal though, we are still technically in an uptrend so that is something worth paying attention to.

With that in mind, a break down below the hammer that formed on Wednesday would of course be a very negative turn of events. After that, then you have to start to worry about the $17.00 level which should be supportive.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 17.41.

The projected upper bound is: 18.04.

The projected lower bound is: 16.13.

The projected closing price is: 17.09.

Candlesticks

A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

An engulfing bearish line occurred (where a black candle’s real body completely contains the previous white candle’s real body). The engulfing bearish pattern is bearish during an uptrend. It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bulls to the bears.

If the engulfing bearish pattern occurs during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with PREC.M.XAG=), it may be a last engulfing bottom which indicates a bullish reversal. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes above the bottom the current (black) candle’s real body.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 17.2252. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 26 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 37.57. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 45 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -173.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAG= closed down -0.513 at 17.108. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 38% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
17.621 17.670 16.960 17.108 39,328
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 17.81 17.85 16.10
Volatility: 27 33 24
Volume: 3,933 787 197

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

PREC.M.XAG= is currently 6.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of XAG= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 8 periods.

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