Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) traders will get a fresh update on the outlook for monetary policy on Wednesday
This week precious metals traders will get a fresh update on the outlook for monetary policy from Wednesday’s December Federal Reserve meeting minutes and a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell a day later.
Last month, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to increase interest rates for a fourth time in 2018 and indicated that two more rate hikes this year are likely.
While investors will be closely scrutinizing the minutes, they will probably be dated following remarks by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell last Friday.
Powell pledged that the central bank will be watching how the economy performs this year and will adjust policy accordingly.
“As always, there is no preset path for policy,” Powell said. “And particularly with muted inflation readings that we’ve seen coming in, we will be patient as we watch to see how the economy evolves.
“Mr. Powell said he is open to a potential view change but so long as the data stays strong in the U.S. we will continue to project hikes in the interest rates in the U.S. by the central bank,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities.
Gold is highly sensitive to rising interest rates, as these increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
Silver eased 0.25% percent to $15.70 per ounce, having earlier hit $15.87, it’s highest level since mid-July.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 14.96.
The projected upper bound is: 16.17.
The projected lower bound is: 15.26.
The projected closing price is: 15.71.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 84.2189. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 26 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 73.97. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 86 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 113.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 23 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAG= closed down -0.044 at 15.691. Volume was -0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 106% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
15.735 15.871 15.550 15.691 0
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 15.28 14.61 15.34
Volatility: 17 20 20
Volume: 0 0 0
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAG= is currently 2.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAG= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 19 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that XAG= is currently in an overbought condition.