Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) traders will continue to monitor movements in the U.S. dollar
This week precious metal traders will continue to monitor movements in the U.S. dollar, one of the biggest factors for gold, with the greenback in turn taking its cue from expectations around the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy plans.
Tuesday’s data on U.S. producer price inflation will be closely watched and if figures indicate that inflationary pressures are cooling, there could be a further reprieve from concerns over the prospect of additional rate hikes in the coming months.
Gold is highly sensitive to rising interest rates, as these increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
A number of Fed officials will also be speaking this week, giving them additional opportunities to reassure market watchers that they will take a patient approach towards monetary policy.
Gold prices were little changed late Friday, but notched up their fourth successive weekly gain.
Gold futures ended at $1,287.85 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange late Friday, for a weekly gain of 0.29%.
The U.S. dollar pushed higher on Friday, even as the greenback’s outlook remained bleak amid cautious signals from the Fed about further rate hikes.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, ended Friday up 0.14% at 95.25, but posted its fourth straight weekly decline.
A weaker dollar can be a positive for commodities priced in the U.S. currency, making them less expensive to buyers holding other currencies. Conversely, a stronger dollar can weigh on prices.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Thursday the U.S. central bank could be patienton rate policy.
Data on Friday showed U.S. consumer prices fell for the first time in nine months in December, which likely supports recent remarks by several policymakers, including Powell, for caution about raising interest rates this year.
“Recent inflation data from around the globe points to a tamer outlook on rising prices in the coming months,” Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals, wrote in a note.
“That should allow world central banks to be less hawkish on their monetary policies, which would be a bullish element for the precious metals markets.”
Among other precious metals, silver futures ended the week at $15.6 an ounce to end the week down 0.82%, snapping three weeks of gains.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 15.09.
The projected upper bound is: 16.01.
The projected lower bound is: 15.22.
The projected closing price is: 15.62.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 45.1963. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 65.87. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 54. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 28 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAG= closed up 0.037 at 15.598. Volume was -0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 113% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
15.560 15.737 15.510 15.598 0
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 15.61 14.72 15.32
Volatility: 13 17 20
Volume: 0 0 0
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAG= is currently 1.8% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAG= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 24 periods.
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