Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) tracking gold to see a modest gain in 2019

Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) tracking gold to see a modest gain in 2019

Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) tracking gold to see a modest gain in 2019

Silver prices will track gold to see a modest gain in 2019 according to the average forecast from  analysts taking part in this year’s survey by wholesale metals trade body the London Bullion Market Association. After falling within 1 cent of 2015’s six-year low of $15.70 per ounce in 2018, the annual average silver price is expected to rise 3.6% this year according to the average forecast in this week’s new LBMA survey. 

That’s just ahead of the 3.5% average gain forecast for 2019 gold prices. Leading the bulls, independent analyst Rhona O’Connell – also giving the most bullish gold price forecast – sees silver  “cleaving more” to its precious rather than industrial-metal character, rising to an annual average of $17.55 because “gold is likely to be the key driver.” 

The 3 most bearish silver-price forecasts in contrast see risks from higher US interest rates, a slowdown in global economic growth, plus weak investment demand. On a 12-month basis, silver and gold prices have moved in the same direction against the US Dollar some 76.2% of the time over the last half century according to analysis by BullionVault, with silver typically extending 1-year moves in gold by 53.0%. 

Both this volatility and co-movement have increased over the last decade, with silver and gold moving up or down together 80.0% of the time from 1 year before and silver prices extending the change in gold by 86.0% (median average) when they moved together since New Year 2009.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

The projected upper bound is: 16.35.

The projected lower bound is: 15.53.

The projected closing price is: 15.94.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 82.2595. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 64.22. This is not a topping or bottoming area. However, the RSI just crossed below 70 from a topping formation. This is a bearish sign. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 106.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAG= closed down -0.154 at 15.911. Volume was -0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 11% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
16.064 16.077 15.850 15.911 0

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 15.66 15.10 15.24
Volatility: 20 17 19
Volume: 0 0 0

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


PREC.M.XAG= is currently 4.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAG= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 39 periods.

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