Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) target $18
Silver markets went back and forth during the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to see a lot of choppiness in general. Ultimately, the Silver markets are essentially trying to figure out whether or not they are comfortable enough with the idea of being above $17. I think they are, and at this point any pullback should be thought of as a buying opportunity.
That of course will continue to be the way going forward, because quite frankly central banks around the world look likely to continue cutting rates and easing monetary policy, and that of course drives money into precious metals.
I believe that the $16.50 level is support, just as the $16.00 level is. The 50 day EMA is currently at the $16.00 level, so I think that’s essentially your “floor” in the market. Ultimately, this is a market that I think does go higher but we may need to take a little bit of a break as we are at extremes currently. I like the idea of buying pullbacks as it offers value in a market that has obviously changed its attitude.
With the Federal Reserve joining the fray of central banks around the world looking to cut rates and ease monetary policy, there’s really no reason to think that precious metals will pullback for any significant move. We would have to see a complete turnaround and the central bank policy around the world to make that happen. I believe that the silver market is probably then going to go to the $18.00 level above.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 15.91.
The projected upper bound is: 17.84.
The projected lower bound is: 16.76.
The projected closing price is: 17.30.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 33 white candles and 17 black candles for a net of 16 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 64.0158. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 70.89. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 107.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 15 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAG= closed up 0.045 at 17.250. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 42% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
17.190 17.384 17.080 17.250 20,399
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 16.85 15.77 15.24
Volatility: 26 21 18
Volume: 2,040 408 102
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAG= is currently 13.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAG= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 51 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that XAG= is currently in an overbought condition. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.
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