Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) target $17.5 an ounce
Goldman Sachs is turning lukewarm on the general commodity index but the firm remains positive on gold and silver, increasing its forecast for the precious metal in its latest commodities report.
In a report published Monday, commodity analysts at Goldman Sachs raised their forecast by $25 across the board over the next three, six and 12 months. The analysts now see gold prices pushing to $1,350, $1,400 and $1,450 an ounce, respectively.
“The negative gold-real rates correlation has re-emerged, with the gold rally closely tracking the fall in real rates. In our view, this switch in the gold-rates correlation after the Fed pause reflects why this stage of the rate cycle is the sweet spot for gold,” the analysts said. “Higher rates can lead to more financial-market volatility and recession fears, boosting safe-haven demand for gold, while a rate cut boosts gold demand as it lowers opportunity cost of holding gold.”
Looking at silver, the investment bank raised its short-term and long-term forecasts up 25 cents. Analysts see silver prices rising during the next three, six and 12 months to $16.5, $17 and $17.5 an ounce, respectively.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
The projected upper bound is: 15.53.
The projected lower bound is: 14.71.
The projected closing price is: 15.12.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 7 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 10.3274. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 34.45. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 23 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -130.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAG= closed down -0.004 at 15.118. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 29% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
15.114 15.150 15.050 15.118 4,382
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 15.54 15.63 15.16
Volatility: 18 17 19
Volume: 438 88 22
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAG= is currently 0.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAG= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 3 periods.
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