Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) Stalls but Risk Remains

Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) Stalls but Risk Remains

Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) Stalls but Risk Remains

Silver prices are down more than 10% off the September highs with XAG/USD trading in a wide range just below a critical resistance level we’ve been tracking for months now. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the Silver weekly price chart.

In my last Silver Price Outlook we noted that XAG/USD was “testing uptrend resistance around 18.37/65 – a breach / close above this region is needed to keep the broader long-bias viable… look for evidence of price exhaustion up here.” Price registered a high at 19.64 in the following days but was unable to mark a weekly close above the 18.37/65 resistance zone- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the 2016 decline and the 2017 swing-high.

The technicals are messy here but for now, the focus is on two main zones of support at 16.97 and more importantly 16.33/51 – both levels of interest for possible exhaustion / long-entries IF reached. A topside breach / close above 18.65 is needed to mark resumption with such a scenario again targeting the upper parallel / 78.6% retracement at 19.58.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 18.54.

The projected lower bound is: 16.55.

The projected closing price is: 17.55.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 45.8673. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 47.34. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 26 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -31. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 24 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAG= closed up 0.039 at 17.519. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 9% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
17.500 17.519 17.499 17.519 11
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 17.47 17.67 15.90
Volatility: 27 35 23
Volume: 1 0 0

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

PREC.M.XAG= is currently 10.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of XAG= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 11 periods.

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