Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) speculators buying into dips but selling rallies
Large speculators moved back into gold during the last reporting week for positioning data compiled by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, although these accounts remained pessimistic toward most of the metals with more industrial characteristics, including silver, analysts said Monday.
This continued a back-and-forth trend in the market prior to the breakout higher that occurred at the end of last week. Previously, gold had been range-bound, with speculators buying into dips but selling rallies.
During the week-long period to May 28 that was covered by the CFTC report, Comex August gold rose by $3.90 to $1,277.10 an ounce, while July silver slipped 9 cents to $14.32.
“Positioning across precious metals continues to diverge, with speculators starting to take a shining to gold, as the call for rate cuts grow and surge in CTA [commodity trading adviser] buying kicks off amid increasingly positive momentum indicators,” Shayne Heffernan, CEO and Founder of Heffx said. “On the other hand, silver and platinum have been feeling the weight of their industrial characteristics, as global growth concerns saw shorts pile into the industrial precious metals.”
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 14.92.
The projected upper bound is: 15.11.
The projected lower bound is: 14.40.
The projected closing price is: 14.76.
A big white candle occurred. This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “low,” it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or retracement level), the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 80.2661. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 54.19. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 129.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAG= closed up 0.205 at 14.775. Volume was -0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 13% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
14.583 14.829 14.540 14.775 0
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 14.52 14.86 14.90
Volatility: 15 15 18
Volume: 0 0 0
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAG= is currently 0.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAG= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 66 periods. Our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period high while the security price has not. This is a bullish divergence.
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